Any negotiator worth his salt will tell you that when you have a man in a corner always make sure that you leave him with a back door from which he can escape. If you fail to provide that you leave him only one option ie to come straight for you with all guns blazing.
In terms of the Zimbabwean negotiations Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC as well as the splinter group afforded Robert Mugabe and the Zanu-PF a back door and a get out of jail free card all rolled into one. Yet somehow they seem reluctant to grab it, make their escape and regroup for another day. Instead we are seeing the same old posturing and intransigence that had a home in days gone by, when Zanu-PF still had a few trumps left in their hand, but which now will result in their total demise.
Just to recap their position:
Despite using every trick in the book they still lost the election. In other words a free and fair election would result in the splinter party getting more seats in parliament than them.
In terms of the presidential election the prognosis was so bad for Mugabe that wholesale murder became the only tool left in the box capable of derailing a run off.
The ballot being out of the question how does the bullet look?
The SADC and South Africa in particular are no longer going to allow this impasse to continue indefinitely. The stakes are too high financially for the SADC and the humanitarian crisis too pronounced for even the AU or UN to keep ignoring it.
In addition the cost of fighting a full scale civil war with the international community assisting the “rebels” is something that the Zanu-PF is incapable of sustaining for any length of period.
The economic position is untenable and is something that not even the Zanu-PF and all the intimidation in the world can conceal or circumvent.
So if they can’t go to the ballot and they certainly can’t sustain a shooting match what next?
What if they stand still?
This is already imploding their entire infrastructure from education to banking. Their police and army unpaid will leave them open to owning the bullets they bought to use on the population. The final irony?
In essence the Zanu-PF is playing Russian Roulette on their own where five of the six chambers have bullets.
Sooner or later their only asset ie the peaceful transition being afforded by the deal, will be considered too high a price to pay for Zimbabwe. If that happens we’ll be looking at Nurumberg revisited and the demise of the Zanu-PF. Unfortunately the birth of the MDC monocracy as well.
The power sharing deal was structured to afford the MDC day to day control of the economy. The international community needs that to be implemented. This means Home Affairs and Finance go to the MDC. It really is that simple.
Zanu-PF must step back from the abyss before it is too late.
This week?
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