In search of an exit strategy for Mugabe and Mbeki

I actually needed three sources (News24, the SABC and iafrica) to confirm that I hadn’t misread President Mbeki’s views on Zimbabwe, as given to al-Jazeera in Doha, Qatar. In essence it confirmed that the people of Zimbabwe were to solve their own problems and the rest of the world were simply there to assist. Staggering!

There are two major errors — among the multitude — in this offering; firstly, South Africa raced to the United Nations Security Council to tell the world to butt out — they must not assist (they can give money I would imagine, just don’t stop the butcher from cutting up the meat) and secondly, as our president well knows, the ruling party will not budge one inch while they are holding the guns and South Africa is bouncing gatecrashers at the door.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3913183.ece

Chris Mcgreal, the Observer columnist, summed up Burma and Zimbabwe as follows: “The two regimes have much in common besides decades in power and a deep-seated paranoia. The crisis in Burma lays bare how both regard their own survival, and enrichment, as paramount, no matter how many of their citizens die along the way. It’s a common trait in authoritarian regimes. The Burmese army doesn’t really think it is better able to deliver aid than the World Food Programme. But the regime is fearful of allowing in hordes of foreigners from countries it blames for Burma’s problems because that would be an admission of its own failings and limitations.

General Than Shwe and the rest of the junta know they are deeply unpopular and that only fear and a sense that the army is all-powerful is what keeps the population from rising up. So large numbers of Burmese who survived the cyclone are likely to die because their government, like the regime in Zimbabwe, is really afraid of its own people.

They were dying unnecessarily through neglect in Burma even without a cyclone. Healthcare is dire. Hospitals are ill-equipped and antiquated. Parts of the country were fed by the WFP long before Nargis hit. Burmese live about 15 years less than people in Thailand or Vietnam. Not that the generals show any concern so long as they are building mansions from the profits of Burma’s natural gas.

Zimbabweans are dying in vast numbers too, with the lowest life expectancy in the world because of acute shortages of food, medicines and work, while the Zanu-PF elite enriches itself.”

That, in a nutshell describes the plight of the people of both of these countries — held in check by the military who support these rogue regimes, they daren’t rise up for fear of annihilation. In the case of Zimbabwe no matter how much the rest of Africa or it’s own people plead for sanity to prevail, Zanu-PF and Mugabe carry on regardless.

Unlike Burma, Zimbabwe did not have something as dramatic as a cyclone to introduce the world to their plight but the results are the same as the various humanitarian agencies are pointing out.

A monument to man’s inhumanity
At this point I think it necessary to distinguish the ANC from the government. At present the ANC and members of the government along with our opposition parties, trade unions and the majority of South Africans are fully behind the people of Zimbabwe. They are showing true solidarity with our northern neighbour’s plight. The president has shown himself, and some may admire him for this, as a true friend to Robert Mugabe and the Zanu-PF but seemingly indifferent to the plight of the people.

His disastrous policy of quiet diplomacy contributed to the worst downturn of an economy since the Weimar Republic and allowed Mugabe to turn on his people with impunity. Then when the world could stand it no more, instead of allowing the United Nations to involve themselves, he raced to block any UN resolution aimed at assisting them.

The MDC have asked Mbeki to recuse himself as mediator. If you have ever been to court and seen how careful our judges and magistrates are to avoid claims of bias, then you will appreciate just how bad this looks. Of course a Business Day article alleging that the president ignored the advice of two judges he appointed to monitor the 2002 election won’t help his cause either. Their report was scathing on the way that election was held

Now having refused to recuse himself, “the impartial mediator” expects Zimbabweans to resolve their own problems. Let’s look at how they have been able to do this in the past as a result of him running interference for Mugabe.

Leaving aside the humanitarian disaster and everything that contributed towards it (mass murder of whole groups of black people, implosion of whole suburbs, torture, exiling more than a quarter of the population and the like) let’s simply examine this election so far.

Before the election, primarily the government media operated internally, meaning the overwhelming majority who have no access to the internet, got to hear the government tell them how Mugabe was saving them from the colonialists — who, by the way, left a couple of decades ago.

As the editor of the Standard found out, you don’t criticise Bob. There is violence and intimidation on a large scale to ensure voters knew who to vote for and no provision for the exiles — who number in their millions — to vote. There are no international observers to stop Mugabe rigging the vote, no foreign press unless they were from discredited sources who would not tell the world what was going on or at least stay within the boundaries given to them which prevented them seeing how bad it is. This is by no means exhaustive of Mugabe and Zanu-PF conduct.

Just to recap thus far, quiet diplomacy was a major contributor to a humanitarian disaster and bedlam prior to the elections. This provides us with a wonderful example of how the Zimbabweans can help themselves and provide solutions — like rigging an election or mutilating their population. Of course, it must not escape your attention that not only are Mugabe and Zanu-PF totally incapable of running a country, they are even incapable of rigging an election properly. They somehow managed to lose it. Talk about not being able to organise a piss-up in a brewery.

Without rehashing all the events I’d like to point out the following. Mugabe knew he had lost almost immediately. He thereupon decided that a run-off was the result and launched a massive campaign of violence to re-educate the voters. If they couldn’t understand how to vote then they needed to be killed or sent into exile prior to the next round of voting.

While he knew almost immediately that there was a run-off, his ZEC was happily counting away or was that actually a case of filling in enough dead, non-existent and anonymous voters, in favour of Mugabe in order to bring him up to 43%? Either way, it took five whole weeks to get there. Let’s face it, in a normal election Makoni would beat Mugabe, never mind Tsvangirai.

So that’s leaves us with a run-off where Mugabe and the Zanu-PF will ensure that this time there are no mistakes. Their own monitors (some of whom were arrested for being stupid enough to miss the wink when they were being told to be impartial) won’t allow Tsvangirai voters to fool them again. As confirmed on Saturday, Zanu-PF have already rejected Tsvangirai’s conditions — observers, peacekeepers and the like — for the election.

This is hardly surprising when their own respected former home affairs minister Dumiso Dabengwa says that Zimbabwe is de facto under military rule with soldiers campaigning for Mugabe!

What about the solutions to South Africa’s Zimbabwean problem Mr President?

Let’s take a look at the cost of our current Zimbabwean policies on South Africa.

If South Africa was hammering Mugabe I would not raise this issue but as we appear happy to defend this disgusting man let’s see at what cost to our people. How much do you think it costs South Africa every year to babysit three to four million exiles? R10-billion, R20-billion — you give me the figure. That is a direct cost to the state — medical care, policing and on and on. Now ask yourself how many homes could we have built or mouths could we have fed for South Africans with that same money. Please remember, the exiles are here because we are allowing their government to brutalise their people to the degree that they would rather live here illegally than in the country of their birth.

In order to assist you I urge each and every one of you to read the Sunday Times’ in-depth analysis of what this is costing our country every year. Leave aside the battering that South Africa and Africa are taking in terms of reputation and credibility just what we are losing in rands and cents.

Again, ask yourself what the country could have done with that money to help our citizens. How many more people could have had homes, electricity, lights and water, better schooling and who knows what else but for this misadventure in propping up Mugabe — a man loathed and despised by our Zimbabwean brothers and sisters?

The cost of Zimbabwe to South Africans, in financial terms, I would imagine, must exceed even that of the Eskom debacle and the arms deal combined. Accordingly, not only are we doing the morally indefensible but we, like the Zimbabweans, are paying an enormous price in order to do it.

In conclusion I would once again point out that the ANC, certain members of the government, trade unions, opposition parties, the majority of the people of South Africa, Zimbabwe, the PAP and AU, the UN and wherever else you look, want resolution and the end of Mugabe.

If you want a better life for yourself and the people of South Africa and Zimbabwe then make yourself heard!

Call for the bill and then send the exiles home to the government of their choice.