Zimbabwe edging towards a military coup?

The Observer on Sunday and the Times of London this morning in a headline article are both speculating on the possibility of a military coup in Zimbabwe. They allege that a wedge is growing between the Joint Operations Command (JOC) and President Robert Mugabe and the aim is to seize control of the country.

“A powerful five-man cabal is orchestrating a campaign of political abductions and disruption aimed at bringing a swift end to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s power-sharing government, according to senior diplomats in the country. The chaotic first days of the new administration, in which cabinet posts are shared between President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change, culminated in the arrest on Friday of the MDC deputy agriculture minister, Roy Bennett, which happened as the cabinet was being sworn in at State House.

“Bennett has now been charged with treason, reportedly in relation to an alleged 2006 plot to overthrow Mugabe. Human rights groups also said yesterday that scores of demonstrators were arrested in the southern city of Bulawayo as they held a Valentine’s Day protest calling for reform. In the past few weeks, scores of Tsvangirai supporters and independent rights activists have been detained.

“According to sources in Harare, the new wave of instability is the work of the JOC, a five-man body comprising the chiefs of the army, air force, police, prisons and intelligence. Modelled on a secret command structure in the former Rhodesian regime, the JOC was revived in 1997 when Mugabe launched the ‘Third Chimurenga’ (Struggle) to pacify liberation war veterans through patronage and political backing for land seizures.” (Observer)

“The JOC has been in de facto control of Zimbabwean politics almost throughout the country’s existence. A leftover of the former white-minority Rhodesian government, it includes General Constantine Chiwenga, commander of the defence forces, Lieutenant-General Phillip Sibanda, head of the Army, Perrence Shiri, head of the Air Force, Happyton Bonyongwe, the director of the Central Intelligence Organisation, Augustine Chihuri, the police chief, and Paradzayi Zimondi, the prisons commissioner. Mr Mugabe is its chairman.

“In the 1990s the JOC was amalgamated into Mr Mugabe’s administration and grew to have subcommittees in every province, district and town. It is served by numerous covert branches of the security services. Its remit is to undermine all individuals or organisations suspected of being opposed to Mr Mugabe. Their methods range from assassination, abduction and torture to bugging, disinformation and framing operations.” (Times)

The charges against Bennett, who is due to appear in court today, have been changed from treason to planning to commit terrorism, sabotage and banditry.

The following questions need to be answered by those who are alleging the move towards a military coup:

1. If a military coup is being planned by the JOC which countries are involved?

It is impossible right now for the Government of National Unity (GNU) or the Zanu-PF, on their own, to sustain Zimbabwe. How would a totally illegitimate regime achieve that? There is only one possibility — namely that one of the world powers like China would be prepared to underwrite a venture whereby they to all intents and purposes “colonise” Zimbabwe and provide the wherewithal to prop up a military junta in return for mineral concessions. This would be a period of intense instability followed by the junta assuming power to restore order.

My personal view is that while this is feasible it is highly improbable. No doubt Bennett’s arrest and the unhappiness caused by Zanu-PF stalwarts being turned away when cabinet posts were allocated, has occasioned a rise in the political temperature but that does not alter the logistical realities of the country right now. Unless the media can explain how they are going to achieve the day-to-day running of the country without foreign intervention this is merely unhelpful speculation.

2. What form are the media suggesting that this coup will take?

A military junta to restore order while promising elections within 2 years?

As things stand Zimbabwe is almost ungovernable now. The economy has imploded resulting in most of the day-to-day administration of government barely functioning. This has seen everything from health to education closing down. Are the foreign media suggesting that during the period of instability giving rise to the coup that the JOC will have the means to sustain an army in waiting?

Once in power how long do the foreign media suggest they will be able to function without occasioning a counter-revolution with their heads landing up on sticks? If 7 million people are already at risk now, the entire population will have nothing to lose if the suggested coup were to take place.

3. The GNU was the Zanu-PF’s only way to keep hold of the country and assist those implicated in crimes against humanity in avoiding prosecution. Are the foreign media suggesting the JOC are going to risk it all on a throw of the dice which could find them at The Hague within 6 months?

4. Are those speculating on this coup suggesting that South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) would be prepared to sanction a coup? In this regard, those suggesting that there is a wedge forming between Mugabe and the JOC, surely cannot be contemplating Mugabe being ousted by his generals. This would alienate the entire SADC, which was the only thing standing between intervention and the GNU.

If that is the case the JOC are inviting not only intervention but the same being driven by the SADC.

Of course the fact that Zimbabwe is in desperate need of loans, investment and humanitarian aid, if this GNU is to stand any chance of succeeding, cannot be lost on the foreign media. As such should it transpire that this is merely wild speculation, in the case of Zimbabwe with millions living on a knife-edge, the speculation delaying relief and occasioning even more unnecessary deaths, then it is tantamount to criminal negligence.