I was asked by a reporter, after listening to Allan Boesak speaking at UWC last week, why people were attracted to his message. It’s not an easy question to answer because you have to consider all the water that has run under the bridge of Boesak’s life since his heyday in the 1980s.
But after considering the question, I had to reply that there is a “gatvol” factor that is creeping into South African society. People are fed up with our leaders and are looking for alternatives.
This is why Boesak’s message appeals to them. This is why so many people with whom I interact on the Cape Flats tell me that they find Helen Zille’s message appealing.
I am sure that Allan Boesak would not want to be categorised with Helen Zille, but he has to admit that they are both presenting an alternative to the ruling party at present, even though Boesak would be hesitant to frame his intervention as such.
It would be interesting to see how he plays out his political future. Does he become part of the ANC structures, campaigning for the party in the next election, or does he continue to play the role of an independent commentator on the problems in our society?
Or does he start an alternative to the ANC? Maybe the timing is wrong to start an alternative party a few months before an election, but I would not discount this possibility.
I doubt whether Boesak would subject himself to ANC discipline once again. I suspect that the pain of his experiences over the past few years would probably still leave him a bit bitter.
I have been amazed, especially in the past few months, at how many people have been telling me that they are considering taking their vote away from the ANC. Many of these people are from the Western Cape but I suspect that I might find similar results to my unscientific survey if I went elsewhere in the country.
A typical discussion would go along these lines: “I voted for the ANC the first few times but every time I think harder about whether I want to continue supporting them. I have considered not voting but we fought long and hard for this vote and I intend to use it.”
The ANC would do well to ask itself why so many people are “gatvol” with it, and what it is that it must do to regain the trust and the confidence of the people.
My prediction is that, while the ANC will probably win the next national election, it will not do it as comfortably as the last election. I fear that the ANC stands the very real danger of losing the Western Cape once again.
The party is not making it easy for its supporters to sell the party, when it goes against public opinion on so many occasions. Of course, it is also not helped by the slowdown in the global economy, but there are things that it could do locally. Fight crime and corruption, seriously and not selectively. Build houses. Create jobs. Speak out against all forms of racism and sexism. Give South Africans a reason to believe in you once again.
This is the only way to stop the ascendancy of people like Allan Boesak and worse, from an ANC perspective, Helen Zille.