War games: What would have happened in SA?

It’s May 1993. Nelson Mandela, president of the African National Congress, just prior to addressing a joint sitting of the two houses of the UK Parliament, learns that a right-wing military coup has been carried out in South Africa. The sitting president, FW De Klerk, has been overthrown and replaced by a General JJ Malan, whom immediately declares martial law.

The new president also declares the negotiations between the government, ANC and other interested parties null and void ab initio and bans those parties operating outside of the white Parliament. Moreover, Malan says that the white voters will have an opportunity in 1995 to decide which party they wish to elect and that all prevailing apartheid legislation will be strictly enforced.

Mandela advises the UK Parliament of developments and summons his aides to a meeting in his hotel room in London later that afternoon. There he confirms that the new leadership is unacceptable and that they are to immediately advise Umkhonto weSizwe leaders in Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique that the ANC leadership had declared war on South Africa.

In addition, they were to inform the MPLA in Angola, Zanu-PF, Swapo in Namibia and Frelimo in Mozambique that, as allies of the ANC, they were expected to intervene on behalf of the ANC in the war. Mandela also confirms that messengers are to be sent to South Africa to advise the population that anyone opposing Malan’s government is to take up arms.

Malan in turn advises Parliament that national service of two years has been reinstated and that 250 000 members of the reserves are to be called up immediately.

What we now have to do is estimate the events that we believe would have taken place if South Africa and the ANC and her allies had been involved in a shooting match in 1993 rather than becoming a multiracial democracy.

Points of interest

South Africa’s nuclear weapons capability was destroyed in 1989.

The Soviet Union had split into 15 states, the largest of which was Russia.

Cuba had left Angola.

The Cold War was officially over.

There was sporadic fighting between Inkatha and the ANC.

South African Forces
Prior to dissolution, the SADF had the following force:
Full-time: 40 000 volunteer service, 5 000 national service
Auxiliaries: 16 000
Civilians: 24 000
Part-time: 500 000
Citizen force (approximately 120 000)
Commando force (approximately 130 000 in 200 units)
Reserves (approximately 180 000)

From the early 1990s (after 1992) to April 1 1997, the SA Army maintained three small divisions, the 7th, 8th and 9th. They consisted of a reconnaissance battalion, two anti-aircraft defence battalions (AA guns), two battalions of artillery (G-5s and G-6s), a battalion of 127 mm MRLs, an engineer battalion, two battalions of Olifant MBTs, two battalions mounted in Ratel ICVs, and finally, two battalions mounted in Buffel APCs. They were all amalgamated into the 7th Division on 1 April 1997, and became the 73rd, 74th and 75th Brigades respectively.

The SAAF had limited capacity due to arms embargoes. It was unable to compete effectively with the MiG23s used by the Cubans in Angola. The SA Navy was comprised of mainly frigates (three, I believe).

MK and allied Forces
Umkhonto weSizwe: MK had exile camps in all four of the frontline states but primarily in Angola. It was considered a modern guerilla army, and there are more details set out in this article in the Military History Journal.

Angolan Army
In 1993, the MPLA was still battling with Unita, with major battles being fought for Huambo.
Military: 82 000 active duty personnel in 1995 with 91,5% coming from the army, 1,8% from the navy and 6,7% from the air force. Military expenditure accounts for 23,9% (1986) of the gross national product.
Further reading

Zimbabwe Army
Military: 45 000 active duty personnel in 1995 with 91,1% from the army and 8,9% from the the air force. Military expenditure accounts for 4,3% (1993) of the gross national product.
Further reading : http://www.nationmaster.com/red/country/zi-zimbabwe/mil-military&all=1

Mozambique Army
Military: 50 000 active duty personnel in 1993 with 90% coming from the army, 2,2% from the navy and 8% from the air force. Military expenditure accounts for 7,6% (1993) of the gross national product.
Further reading

Namibian Army
Military: 8 100 active duty personnel in 1995 with 98,8% coming from the army and 1,2% from the navy. Military expenditure accounts for 2,3% (1993) of the gross national product (GNP).
Further reading

Other factors
Bear in mind there were global players who might have involved themselves in the conflict. For example, Angola is an oil producer which together with the fact that the Cold War had ended, saw the United States support of Unita cooling down. Russia, just after the Soviet Union broke up, was hardly likely to intervene while China might have assisted in supplying arms but was unlikely to put troops on the ground.

Then there is the possibility of other African countries becoming involved.

The type of war is another item to ponder. If the frontline states baulked, would this have become an asymetrical war running on and on indefinitely? Could the frontline states have fought South Africa in a conventional war in 1993? Internally, Ronnie Kasrils conceded (see MK article above) that the structures on the ground were not where they wanted them to be.

Financially, how long do you think South Africa could have sustained this? Surely the longer it went on the worse it would have become for the white government. What would labour have done to make it even harder?

The rules
None really, but I will expect you to enter into the spirit of this exercise so that we all contribute and learn a lot from each other. Any comments that are racist or abusive will be removed. This should be fun and educational and remind us all of how blessed we are that Madiba and the ANC and FW De Klerk and the National Party avoided this.

I have asked the guys at the World Affairs Board to take a look at the comments. If we get sufficient responses I’ll let them, as the military boffs, decide whose theoretical scenario would have been most likely to occur.

Hope you enjoy it.