Use French rugby form-book as braai paper

Any punter who suggests that the All Blacks beating France in Sunday’s Rugby World Cup final is a “sure thing” has obviously forgotten that if there is one thing that you can always bank on when it comes to Les Tricolores rugby, it’s that there is absolutely nothing that you can bank on.

Every time the pundits think that they have finally worked out a French squad they land up with egg all over the faces as Les Bleus trash the form-book and produce a performance in stark contrast to everyone’s predictions.

Wars between the coach and players, sending offs and players going home in disgrace abound and that was just the Fifa 2010 Soccer World Cup.

At the start of Rugby World Cup 2011 they easily overcame Canada and Japan without turning heads or giving any indication that this would be their third appearance in a final. In the first half against the Japanese it looked like they might need a miracle just to progress beyond the pool stage.

Enter the pool game against the All Blacks.

In the first 20 minutes of the first half, the French pack dominated their New Zealand counterparts and an upset looked on the cards. Then the wheels came off and the hosts coasted home 37-17 in Auckland.

The pundits put this down to ill-discipline allied to a suspect game plan that appeared to be foreign to the usual French flair — kicking the ball to the All Blacks who made them pay for it in a big way.

Never mind, they’d soon get things back on track against Tonga.

The only thing on track during the Wellington rail disaster was the Tongan pack who made the French look ordinary and inspired a 14-19 win, which ranks among the biggest shocks in Rugby World Cup history.

The French media were scathing, the English trying to work out who they would be facing in the semi-final after handing the old foe a hiding.

As Pakistan are to world cricket — lose to Bangladesh then thump Australia — France are to world rugby, you never know which team will turn up.

In Auckland, unfortunately for Martin Johnson and his England team it was the “never say die” version which took to the field and never looked like being bested on the day. Instead of being down and out following the Tongan reversal, Marc Lievremont’s Les Bleus used the humiliation as their inspiration for a 19-12 win.

Dominating both possession and territory the French looked like they had finally turned the corner.

Which they had … into the path of an oncoming truck called Wales.

If the French had given their fans hope of glory in the manner in which they overcame England it was another dip on the roller-coaster ride as they were pummelled into the dust by a Welsh team reduced to 14 men early in the first half.

Welsh skipper Sam Warburton was red carded for a spear tackle on Vincent Clerc leaving France what seemed to be an easy ride to the final. Instead the French, once again, kept kicking the ball to the Welshmen who stormed the Bastille time and again falling just short of ousting Les Tricolores.

It was a disastrous performance which the French management scored as a triumph for their defence but nobody was fooled.

So where does that leave the French?

The only truthful answer that anyone can give to that question is that we really don’t know.

In previous finals the French lost 29-9 to New Zealand in 1987 and 35-12 to Australia in 1999. Neither match was a close-run thing and the French flattered to deceive.

In 2011, England aside, they have been horrible (being kind) yet somehow made it all the way to the final.

On Sunday they start all square and if the wrong French team turns up, the All Blacks might end up ruing the day that they somehow saw off a wonderful Welsh team.

Despite fluctuating performances Lievremont has persevered with his pack with the same eight starting against Wales and England.

Jean-Baptiste Poux and Nicolas Mas are solid props with William Servat, the hooker, not averse to carrying the ball. At lock it should be Pascal Pape and Lionel Nallet with Thierry Dusautoir, the captain, and man of the match against Wales, Julien Bonnaire, on the flank. Bonnaire will need to at least give All Black skipper Richie McCaw a run for his money at the breakdowns or France could be conceding too much possession to the hosts. Man of the match against England Imanol Harinordoquy is at number eight.

With the pack settled they will be a match for the All Blacks on Sunday.

Their backline however does not appear to be in the same division as New Zealand. Dimitri Yachvili is a special talent at scrum half but he appears to be carrying an injury which means Morgan Parra, a scrumhalf, is retained at flyhalf. It looked ugly against the Welsh.

Vincent Clerc and Alexis Palisson are the wings with Maxime Mermoz and Aurélien Rougerie at centre, Maxime Médard the fullback.

If Sunday turns out to be a battle upfront the French might surprise us all and edge a result with Yachvili dictating affairs. If however the ball swings wide I don’t expect the French backs to be able to live with the most potent backline in the world.

I expect the All Blacks to win on Sunday but I wouldn’t wager 10 cents on it.

The minute I back the prediction with cash Lievremont’s unpredictable army will come out to play and give me a proper spanking.