ANC president Jacob Zuma once said that the ANC will rule until the Second Coming of Jesus. It looks like he may be making an appearance sooner than he realised. I know it is too soon to write the obituary of the ANC. To borrow from Shakespeare, “Lend me your ears,” but in this case, your eyes. Allow me to create a scenario; I know it’s unlikely but do indulge me.
After next year’s elections the president of the country might not be Jacob Zuma, or Kgalema Motlanthe or any member of the ANC for that matter. It might not even be from the ANC. I know that I may sound like I’m a deranged lunatic for saying this (in many ways I am but lets not get into that now). I beg you to hear me out. I know that this may seem laughable.
What if the following happens?
The new party takes 20% of the ANC’s votes (and assuming that a lot of its voters stay home because they are tired of the fighting or can’t bring themselves to vote for another party other than the ANC) and the DA keeps 20% and the remaining parties get 12%. This effectively means that the ANC would still have the majority at 48%. But that could also mean that we might not have a Jacob Zuma or a Kgalema Motlanthe as president of the Republic.
Remember that parliament elects the president, not the electorate. Now imagine the following scenario: the new party and the opposition parties form a coalition government and elect a president from the new party, and maybe the deputy would be from the DA. This means that parliament might decide to vote for someone else other than Zuma. This would effectively shut out the ANC from government. This is all possible but unlikely.
I doubt that the new party expects to get more than 10% of the ANC’s majority. I don’t think that they are as outlandishly optimistic as I am.
I know that every single seasoned political commentator has been saying that a new party led by the likes of Terror Lekota and Sam Shilowa is no threat to the ANC. I beg to differ; perhaps it is my youthful foolishness.
There is a silent and large minority of displeased voters out there. They feel that the ANC has left them. To quote the late Ronald Reagan when he left the Democratic Party for the Republicans, “I did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me.” A lot of people feel that way about the ANC.
I’m amazed at how few people believe that this new party will not be anything more than an irritating fly that the elephantine ANC will just have to keep swatting with its tail. It reminds me of a little known Democratic Senator who took on the well-oiled Clinton machine to win the nomination for the Democratic Party for the presidency of the United States. Nobody believed he could do it. Especially blacks. When he won the first primary in Iowa, everyone started to believe that maybe this crazy idea of a black president might not be so crazy.
Now I am not saying that the new party will be such a phenomenon as Barack Obama. But what I am saying is that the ANC should not underestimate its potential the way the Clinton’s did Obama. To be honest though, I do hope the ANC does. For its own sake. Hopefully this will teach it a lesson in humility.
The ANC leadership pretends that it is not bothered by what is going on in public. But they are nervous. The nervousness is very apparent from the lack of one clear central message from the alliance. Some members of the ANC call for cool heads and the need to resolve these apparent divisions, while others attack Terror Lekota and ridicule the thought of a national convention. The personal insults that have been levelled at Sam Shilowa reveal the state of nervousness about these developments within the alliance.
The way they scramble clearly indicates that this was not meant to happen. It was as unexpected as an unplanned pregnancy. Like teenagers engaging in unprotected sex who get surprised that their screwing around has some consequence.
What has the old man, the living ancestor of the ANC, Nelson Mandela said of this? Has he been consulted? And why the silence? Can we safely use the words of Sir Thomas Moore in the play, A Man for All Seasons, “Silence is consent”? Could he be silently condoning the formation of a new political party?
Obviously there is no way he is happy about what is going on. This is the organisation he went to prison and suffered for. To see it tear itself apart before he is even in the grave must be the worst possible torment for him. I’m sure, for him, it’s like seeing two of his children, whom he loves both very much fight. It must be difficult to take sides in this situation. And what of mamu’ Winnie Madikizela-Mandela? What does she make of this whole thing?
In conclusion, perhaps my 20% estimation is too bullish, that I know. But this is something that ought to be considered. Perhaps Jesus is coming a lot sooner than we all thought. It’s best everyone make sure that they are right with the Lord before he makes his grand appearance.
A prince with dignity and determination
Prince Ngarambe’s goals are to become Rwanda’s first transgender model and to uplift the country’s youth
The EFF’s principles are unshakeable
Unlike the ANC, the core values of the freedom fighters do not change with each leader it elects
