The enigma that is President Mbeki on Zimbabwe

I was chatting to my brother-in-law Nevil the other day about a radio station that he listens to, where they interview many interesting guests including Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille. I was surprised to learn that Zille, instead of launching into diatribes about how awful the president is, conveyed among other things her respect for his insight and foresight.

This is a credit to her as a person as well as a politician — the ability to transcend party politics.

However, with the events of the past few months in mind, I’d be lying if I didn’t say that Mbeki’s approach to Zimbabwe has driven me to the point of despair. He has appeared oblivious to the suffering of the Zimbabwean people, dismissive of the enormous impact that it was having on South Africa, and insensitive to the global view of the conflict.

Moreover, in the face of overwhelming evidence, he appeared resolved to stand by Mugabe regardless of his conduct. This resulted in the majority of countries outside Africa taking a dim view of South Africa, and an even dimmer view of the president.

His policy of ‘quiet diplomacy’ is considered one of the key factors in the disaster that is unfolding in Zimbabwe today.

Now we have learned of a document setting out Mbeki’s concerns which were relayed to Mugabe in 2001.

To place it in context: In 2000 Zimbabwe held a referendum on amending its constitution. Mugabe and the Zanu-PF lost and began to realise that in a fair fight they would lose the next election. So they pushed that to 2002 citing voter registration as the reason.

During the period post-referendum but prior to the 2002 election Mbeki furnished this discussion document to Mugabe.

Vital to this debate is the fact that if Mugabe had adopted some political triangulation and borrowed from the MDC’s policies, he would either have lost by a narrow margin or won in 2002, and would have had every chance of bouncing back in 2008. Instead, he ignored the wishes of his electorate and began the war with his people that the world is witnessing now.

In terms of Mbeki however, his approach is nothing short of an enigma. If you read the article from the Mail & Guardian, along with the discussion document, then you will appreciate that not only was the president aware of Mugabe’s problems, the impact they were having and how to set them right, but he even told Mugabe how to set about it.

Not only was he in touch with the problems, even as far back as seven years ago, but all the possible scenarios and ramifications arising from them were within his contemplation long before any of the analysts came along.

And of course, he offered a workable solution.

Accepting as a given that Mugabe listens to no-one, why has Mbeki continued to tolerate a dictator who has demonstrated total disrespect for human life, the opinions of an entire planet and based upon what we know now, his own opinion. Not only does that discussion document set out a clear and logical course of action to be adopted, it simultaneously points out the dangers that have translated into the violence we are all witnessing now.

Why has he refrained from telling the world the truth? Why has he not said to the world’s media: “If you think that Mugabe has screwed up royally, read what I told him seven years ago, long before anyone had any idea of how misguided this gentleman is”.

Why take on this burden when no-one could have faulted his approach? If anything that document is exactly what Zimbabwe needed to hear.

And why put his legacy in jeopardy when he, better than anyone, understands the problems and how best to solve them?

And why act against the solutions he knew to be right? Instead of refusing Mugabe arms, credit and support in terms of blocking the solutions being forced upon him by the U.N and others, we have seen the exact opposite.

In the interest of his legacy and to start bridging the gap with the people of South Africa, isn’t it time the president detailed the thinking behind the actions?

It can’t be any worse than the current perceptions that are out there right now.