Scorpions Bill first salvo in ANC 'civil war'?

The Sunday Tribune has up to 50 standing ANC members of Parliament set to quit the party, Beeld speaks in terms of thousands leaving, while City Press claims that most of the senior people behind the splinter group have been told to stay in place until summoned by the new party.

Mosiuoa Lekota confirmed this weekend that the new party will be formed at a national convention on November 2 2008 in Bloemfontein and then launched on December 16.

It goes without saying that this will prove enormously disruptive to the ANC’s preparation for next year’s election.

At present many of the party faithful are being torn between staying on or joining the new party, and the extent of their dilemma might become apparent as early as this week.

One of ANC president Jacob Zuma’s top priorities has been putting through the legislation to disband the Scorpions and incorporate them in the SAPS under a deputy commissioner. This Bill will be adopted by the joint portfolio committee on justice and security on Monday and presented to the National Assembly on Thursday.

If regard is had to those MPs who stayed away from voting for President Motlanthe and add to that the 50-plus disaffected MPs and a united opposition, it might well put the passage of the Bill at risk despite a simple majority being required.

The problem that the ANC hierarchy faces at present is that it still doesn’t know how far this breakaway group extends. If it were to run the risk of presenting the Bill and then suffering a reversal, the embarrassment to the party would be substantial.

It would also encourage those currently sitting on the fence to join the new party as it would come across as more than just a splinter group and capable of threatening the ANC, unlike the PAC way back when.

The biggest challenge presently facing the ANC national executive committee is the fact that they can’t be sure who’s in and who’s leaving for the new party. The threat is from within and outside of the party. Once the “civil war” is concluded and the members who are leaving have joined the new party, the playing field will be level once more.

Leaving us with the most interesting election in South African history.