When Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille confirmed to the special unity conference of the Independent Democrats that the difference between themselves — including Cope — related to style rather than substance, it was to all intents and purposes an accurate assessment of the leading opposition parties.
Theirs is a natural fit where even differences over economic policies can easily be surmounted through negotiation.
This means that either as an alliance or unified party they could move ahead without concerning themselves with potential meltdown every time there is a budget or major policy shift.
All hands would be on deck.
Not so in the case of the current ruling party and its two alliance partners.
In terms of ideology there is a major, insurmountable chasm between the ANC, the South African Communist Party and Cosatu.
As far back as November last year Cosatu was launching a “war” against anti-left elements within the ANC, and suggesting that the next divisive leadership struggle was on the cards. This was as a result of what Cosatu perceived to be the government’s refusal to meet their demands on the economy and that certain members of the ANC’s national executive committee were seen as bitterly opposed to trade unions and the SACP.
Whereas previously the ANCYL, Cosatu, the SACP and the left wing of the ANC had stood firm — with President Jacob Zuma against former president Thabo Mbeki — the lines have now become somewhat blurred.
At that time, in November 2009, the main clashes involved the South African Communist Party and the African National Congress Youth League — arising out of differences between league president Julius Malema and Jeremy Cronin, the SACP deputy general secretary. This reached fever pitch at the SACP special conference in Polokwane, when the SACP crowd heckled the ANC and ANCYL delegates.
Noteworthy as well at Polokwane were the words of SACP General Secretary Blade Nzimande and Cosatu General Secretary Zwelenzima Vavi, which were symptomatic of the fact that both were feeling frustrated at the lack of rewards for the alliance partners after having helped Zuma to achieve the presidency.
Considering the fight that they put up for Zuma they were not wrong.
Subsequently there were disagreements over, inter alia, the following: lifestyle audits; general economic policy direction; claims that the ANC did not come to Gwede Mantashe’s defence when he was attacked by the ANCYL; claims that there is a group plotting to unseat Zuma; Cosatu’s less-than-warm welcome of both the State of the Nation address and the budget; claims that there are those who are already hard at work on the succession debate and even Zuma’s failure to name and shame the individuals concerned.
These are symptomatic of the problem and by no means exhaustive.
Unfortunately for the members of this alliance this is not something that can be cured with meetings or at all because — other than at election time and while looking back fondly at the road they have travelled together — they really don’t have that much in common.
Theirs is by no means a natural fit.
In truth the ANC in terms of ideology is far closer to the members of the DA-Cope-ID alliance than it will ever be to its current partners.
The only way that they could overcome this is by the SACP and Cosatu keeping their names but abandoning their policies. Because in reality their ideology is a million miles away from that of the ruling party and in accordance therewith the source of much discomfort at party conferences.
Whether these three decide to finally go their own way or form natural alliances only time will tell.
What is clear is that if the opposition alliance gets its ducks in a row it could deliver to the people the clear mandate of a natural alliance with all the proof in the world that unless South Africa deals with the major issues right now we are headed for a kleptocracy, perhaps run by a leader who considers calling for the murder of farmers part of politics and who seems to take pride in upstaging Zuma every time the president gets the government back on track.
In accordance therewith the new alliance has everything going for it and will see tangible results in both the municipal elections next year and the national elections in 2014 unless it dithers and debates while direction is needed.
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