Section 88(2) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa confirms that no person may hold office as president for more than two terms. The section is, however, capable of being amended by a two-thirds majority and is not cast in stone.
In order to achieve what would surely be one of the longest shots in history, former South African president Thabo Mbeki would have to achieve the following:
- Assume control of SADC — which is still in the process of being formed — and which he currently denies any association with.
- Ensure that they not only beat the ANC, but achieve a two-thirds majority.
- Table and then amend the Constitution to allow for a person to serve a third term as president.
This is highly unlikely and perhaps bordering on the impossible.
While Mbeki is capable of keeping an entire planet at bay with respect to Mugabe, this must be considered beyond even his reach.
However, as probably the sharpest tactical mind ever to hold the highest office in South Africa I wouldn’t write him off too soon. While the above scenario seems highly improbable, how about this one?
Mbeki hops on board the SADC bus along with a significant number of the current party heavyweights.
The splinter becomes a full blown two by four which is used to bludgeon the ANC from a two-thirds to a borderline majority. For starters this would defeat any plans to introduce legislation to prevent prosecuting a sitting president.
Leaving aside the divorce, bigamist and serpentine issues for the moment, what price would the ANC then be prepared to pay for reuniting the two entities?
An ANC presidency?
Two-thirds majority to amend the Constitution to allow a third term?
Incredible?
Think back to the political landscape prior to Polokwane and compare that with what exists now. The situation is incredibly fluid and it’s hard to imagine what it will look like even two months from now.
As things stand all bets are off and positioning is going to be everything.
On Saturday we witnessed the Democratic Alliance and SADC working together on the same platform. Is this previous rivals uniting against a common enemy or simply groups which now have far more in common?
Whichever way you perceive it the battle for hearts and minds has begun in earnest and nothing is sacred.
Not even the fact that we can call Mbeki the former president.
Anything goes.