Malema could give a sneak preview of ANC 2012

While Business Day are suggesting a Malema guilty plea to shorten today’s disciplinary hearing, IOL are speculating on points in limine being taken by the youth league president’s advisers.

In the first instance the guilty plea, in return for a suspended sentence, has been making the rounds and appears to be a sensible exit strategy for all concerned; this ,however, ignores the fact that “sensible” has seldom been used to describe the ANCYL president’s term of office.

If regard is had to the sentiments he expressed at the opening of the young women’s assembly in Muldersdrift on Friday, then guilty seems to be the last thing on his mind right now.

Malema said that threats of his expulsion from the ANC for raising his opinions will not silence him and that there are many things that were said and done by the various leaders and generations in the ANC but they were never silenced through threats of suspension and expulsion from the party.

He confirmed that the youth league will never defy the leadership of the ANC, but warned that their power shouldn’t be undermined.

“If there is a battle that is about to confront us we are ready for it, but if it can be avoided let’s avoid it. Nobody has succeeded in suppressing and silencing the youth of the African National Congress.”

The more likely scenario is that his representative, ANC treasurer general Mathews Phosa, will tackle the validity of the charges as suggested by The Star’s Xolani Mbanjwa.

In this regard the key issue will revolve around the alleged fact that there are two different charge sheets, neither of which has been properly executed by those bringing the charges.

If that application succeeds it may well bring Malema into direct confrontation with ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe who initiated the charges against him.

That would in turn bring the potential divide in the coalition — between Mantashe supported by Cosatu and the SACP against Malema backed by the ANCYL and members within the ANC — into focus.

In terms of the disciplinary committee that would leave the remaining panelists — those who haven’t recused themselves — looking over their shoulders at the calendar for 2012.

Accordingly if a guilty plea is not entered — giving everyone an out — it might well turn out to be an opportunity to gauge the prevailing winds that are blowing through the tripartite coalition.