Lekota’s rolling stone gathering moss

It’s a good thing that floor crossing has become a thing of the past or we’d need a metro cop directing the traffic in parliament about now. In fact the situation has become so fluid, what with all the new parties, breakaways and splits on the go, that it’s becoming harder by the day to figure out who is aligned with whom or why.

Just on today’s news alone we have former president Mbeki allegedly having sent a letter to confirm to the ANC that he does not support the dissidents while former NP leader in the Free State Tinus Aucamp and a few other cohorts have thrown their lot in with Terror Lekota and his mob. Of course we have had reports of those who are interested in restarting the old National Party and as soon as I find out which phone booth they’re meeting in I’ll let you know.

Let’s do a short recap:

As things stand the ANC will field Jacob Zuma as their candidate for the presidency in the forthcoming elections. He has strong support within the party and among the ANCYL and alliance partners. Due to the time periods involved in his legal proceedings they will not play a factor in respect of the election. There has been movement towards the left but nothing like the ANC’s opponents would have you believe. Indeed if a good measure of socialism software is introduced onto our Capitalist mainframe it might stand all South Africans in good stead.

While Terror Lekota has been the face of the dissidents who are about to launch a new party it appears to be common cause that their numbers are going to be substantial. What support they receive from the former NP membership is interesting but less so than the questions regarding how deep is the split within the ANC and what price the Democratic Alliance will pay if the new party becomes the official opposition? The DA, in my humble opinion, would become totally marginalised by a party comprising former centrist ANC members with the DA’s failure to entice strong black leadership to its centrist views coming home to roost.

What effect all this movement will have on the IFP, UDM, IP and FF is also going to be interesting to see. Bantu Holomisa, who was asked to leave the ANC long before Lekota and George, is suggesting that many dissidents are finding a home among his lot. While the smaller parties may benefit to a lesser degree they won’t be making major inroads as a result of the current fluidity. If the new party is substantial and primarily centrist it may well see a number of these smaller parties disappear altogether.

At this stage it is difficult to call the next election but (as I hate sitting on the fence) my best guess for now would be:

The ANC returns with an overall but reduced majority of around 55-58%. The new party will form the opposition even though the DA should slightly increase their vote from the last time around. (Where the DA goes from there would be the big question).

Let us have your thoughts on this and as the election approaches we’ll be able to look back and see how close or far from the reality we all were at the start.