A Protea Revolution?

President Jacob Zuma in an interview with Beeld newspaper published Thursday said that he is confident that South Africa would never become a Tunisia in reference to the ongoing service delivery protests.

The president was quoted as saying : “I can tell you there will never be a Tunisia in South Africa. We have a constitutional democracy here; every person has the right to say what he wants and to vote. It is impossible. I repeat: It is impossible.”

Jasmine Revolution
Tunisia had suffered under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali for 23 years before he fled the country in 2011 after enormous protests, dubbed the Jasmine Revolution, were sparked by a street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi who set himself on fire on December 17 2010.

That was in protest at the confiscation of his wares and the humiliation that was inflicted on him by a female municipal official.

The demonstrations were precipitated by high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, lack of freedom of speech and other political freedom and poor living conditions.

“While the media has reported on social networks such as Twitter and Facebook as revolutionary methods of mobilisation, it was the old-fashioned working class that enabled the pro-democracy movements to flourish.”

This was confirmation of the enormous part that was and is being played by trade unions in the protests.

Following Ben Ali’s departure, a state of emergency was declared and a caretaker coalition government created under Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi.

The situation remains highly volatile.

South Africa
In South Africa violent protests are nothing new.

They have been part of the country’s history going back to British rule, apartheid and more recently xenophobia and lack of service delivery.

In Wesselton, outside Ermelo, protestors have voiced their dissatisfaction with service delivery, joblessness and the ruling African National Congress’s selection of candidates ahead of local government elections later this year.

In response to the violence police fired rubber bullets at protesters with at least one person being killed.

According to The Times newspaper of South Africa about 500 ANC members from three provinces descended on the party’s headquarters in Johannesburg this week, demanding that senior members intervene in growing unhappiness over election candidate lists.

In the Eastern Cape, police reported on Thursday that protesters had assaulted an ANC official and a police officer outside the party’s provincial offices in King William’s Town, also after complaints about candidate lists.

President Zuma
The quotes by Zuma referred to above were in response to Beeld asking him to react to a prediction by political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki, brother of ousted president Thabo Mbeki, warning that the poor in South Africa would be revolting against the government by 2020.

As indicated above Zuma cited the fact that South Africa is a constitutional democracy, where every person has the right to say what he wants and to vote, as the basis for his belief that it could never happen here.

He said of Mbeki: “I don’t want to become personal because that is not my nature. But it is easy to be clever, sit back and criticise.”

Protea Revolution
If regard is had to the factors giving rise to the Jasmine Revolution — high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, lack of freedom of speech and other political freedom and poor living conditions — then a frightening number of them are present in South Africa today.

Not only are they manifesting themselves, but in a material way that is giving rise to violent protests against service delivery and trade unions demanding that the government stamp out corruption.

Of greater concern to the president, however, should be the areas where he believes that South Africa is succeeding in its efforts to negate any desire to revolt.

If regard is had to the following three examples then the constitutional democracy and freedoms indicated by Zuma are under threat by the very party claiming them as the antidote to revolution.

– The introduction of the Protection of Information Bill;
– The media appeals tribunal;
– The dismantling of the Scorpions.

These are symptomatic, but by no means exhaustive, of the attempts to erode the safeguards of South Africa’s constitutional democracy.

The Scorpions were the major deterrent against corruption while the Protection of Information Bill and media appeals tribunal would further remove the public’s protection against corruption, ineptitude and abuse.

The ruling party however appears to be as adamant on bringing in the first two measures as it was when ridding the country of the Scorpions.

No amount of expert opinion could dissuade them from that course of action.

If high unemployment, food inflation, corruption and poor living conditions are a fact and efforts are being made to limit freedom of speech and other political freedoms then the conditions giving rise to the Jasmine Revolution are certainly present.

The fact that violent protests are very much a part of present-day South Africa means that it would not come as a shock in the way it has in North Africa and the Middle East.

In reality
I don’t share the pessimistic view of former president Thabo Mbeki’s brother that there will be a revolution by 2020 because I believe that the African National Congress will turn back towards a constitutional democracy and away from introducing security measures that could prove to be their downfall.

It is within those freedoms, which provide an escape valve against anger that, salvation lies.

By allowing protestors to tell them about their anger regarding the elite always being nominated as candidates and people’s appalling plight, they have solved half the problem.

The other half is in actually dealing with it like convening an arms deal inquiry, telling ministers to stop alienating half the country by making racist remarks and stop giving the elite all the benefits of BEE, AA, candidacy, tenders and the like.

A Protea Revolution?

Not impossible rather let’s say improbable, I repeat improbable.