Gordon Brown and the Labour of love

British prime minister Gordon Brown, having just led his party to its worst local election’s showing in 40 years, witnessed its most dire polling since records began in the 1930s and having had a brief glimpse of what the Cherie Blair and John Prescott’s sure–to–be–bestsellers have in store for him, could be excused for thinking that he must have done something horrendous in a previous life to deserve all this.

What else could explain Labour trailing the Tories by 26 points in some polls, dropping close to 400 seats and listening to Cherie Blair telling the Times of London that she has nothing personal against Gordon Brown but… followed by John Prescott waffling on about how he told Blair to sack Brown?

Then if that’s not enough, just to compound it further, he is blessed with a blow–by–blow commentary and analysis on each and every point, no matter how miniscule, that only the British media can give to one of it’s big winners or losers. Like a football fan forced to watch the penalty that cost his side the match, one news broadcast after the next, Brown has to relive each and every mistake or disaster he has ever made. This is usually followed by every journalist and pundit in Britain telling him how to rebuild Labour if he wants to win the next general election.

Of course those are the optimists. The pessimists are telling him he isn’t going to be leading the party at the next election.

Among the “optimistic” pundits and analysts we find the turn–sharp–left brigade, take Labour back to it’s traditional roots, as opposed to the turn–sharp–right brigade, move more towards the centre (does this still exist?) and the do–not–pass–go–collect–two–hundred-pounds, go straight to hell brigade.”

“Hi I’m Labour MP Frank Field and I wanted to get my knife in first”.

Then of course we have the 2 billion advisers on how the prime minister should handle each individual policy, ranging from backing the Fertility and Embryology Bill to dumping the 10p tax debacle. Among these we have the experts like Ken Livingstone who lost London but by a percentage lower than the national drubbing rate, which somehow seems to make him qualified to call Labour’s path to political redemption.

In response to this avalanche, Gordon Brown has not come out fighting or, quite frankly, at all. His spokesman’s response has been that the Prime Minister is busy with the business and big issues of the country. Therein lies the trouble with Gordon Brown.

It is this freezing in the headlights, coupled to a retaliatory aggression for some perceived slight or wrongdoing, as we saw on his debut at Prime Minister’s question time and in his temper tantrums and sulking when Blair refused to stand aside, that is costing him dearly. He is, as a Guardian commentator put it, an unsympathetic figure. Someone who commentators take delight in analysing after a setback like the local elections, this one by the Sunday Observer‘s Andrew Rawnsley, describing the implosion of the Prime Minister being just one of umpteen examples.

Of course the fact that we witnessed a knee–jerk response to the local elections in the form of a frantic U–turn on tax was hardly inspiring either. But this detracts fronm the real problem with Gordon Brown — namely, can Labour turn him into a likeable, spontaneous and sympathetic figure?

Since Bill Clinton introduced political triangulation as a means of conducting a campaign, borrowing the best bits from your opponents, left and right wing parties have been moving closer and closer together. Tony Blair’s “New Labour” looked more like the Tories of Margaret Thatcher than conventional Labour. After a few years in the wilderness, the Tories started becoming more green, metro–sexual and “working class” than Labour.

The confluence of left and right has become so marked that even the approach to traditional policies is no longer guaranteed to give away the identity of a candidate’s party. For example Rudy Giuliani was pro–gay rights and abortion and…running under the Republican ticket for president of the United States.

Which means that telling Gordon Brown to turn left or right is about as helpful as telling him to always cross at the stop sign.

Electability, in the case of the party, is down to taking a few select policies and pinning your hat on doing the right thing. These areas relate to tax, the economy (who would have expected the credit crunch to have hit so hard?), climate change, health, education and crime. I’m sure I’ve missed many out. What you cannot do is go down a specific path because it may well be that the conservative approach to climate change is in favour at the time of the election but a more traditional labour approach to tax is best suited. As Brown found out with his 10p tax reversal, one policy can blow you away on the day. Of course attacking your poorest citizens was never going to be a vote spinner at the end of the day.

Politicians who are members of large parties have the machinery to establish voting trends for individual policies, down to the way voters cast their ballots in specific areas. This is another reason why left and right are becoming almost indistinguishable overall. It is also why individual personality becomes so important.

When it comes to the party leader it comes down to something more. I hate to use the term but it’s about the X–factor and Gordon Brown is somehow going to have to acquire it or step aside. He could do worse than learn from Boris and Obama.

Boris Johnson, who beat Ken Livingstone to become the mayor of London, oozes it. He has been bust bonking away from home, forced to apologise to the people of Liverpool who he insulted for mourning the loss of one of their own too heavily, and has generally made a nuisance of himself. He has also written articles for the Spectator (magazine) and the Telegraph (newspaper), been an active campaigner for a greener planet and put himself about. Even after winning the election, he nearly crashed into the podium on the way to making his speech. Boris is in your face. He gave up drinking as a New Year’s resolution and told everyone he can’t wait to start again.

Compare that with a Prime Minister who looks like the whole planet has just learned that the Martians are invading Earth and we’re all going to die on the day he won the Lotto. Hardly inspiring.

Barack Obama has that boyish charm, underpinned by a steel that voters are fast discovering. He has shown that post partisan politics not only exists but he is the professor — picking his policies with unerring skill that has led to him being able to draw from the Democrats, Independents and even some Republican voters. There is no doubting that this guy can go all the way, with oodles of charm and charisma and a mental toughness that has to be a starter for candidates in this day and age.

Gordon Brown’s revival or otherwise will be down to his ability to face the country and his opponents with a smile on his lips and steel in his heart, to acquire an ability to signal composure and strength while secretly wishing he could leap ten yards and strangle David Cameron.

Let’s face it if he can’t fake warmth and sincerity, he’s dead.