Cope best thing to happen to the ANC and Democratic Alliance

If Judge Chris Nicholson was the primary catalyst, which occasioned the recalling of president Mbeki and flowing therefrom, the formation of the Congress of the People Party, he may one day be regarded as one of the brave, if somewhat misguided, “warriors” of South African history. Moreover, and herein lies the irony, his judgment, which was adjudged to be very much in favour of Jacob Zuma and the ANC, until it resulted in the formation of Cope, whereafter it was adjudged to be a disaster for JZ and the ANC, could well be the long-term making of the party and the reason why South Africa does not become another Zimbabwe.

Bear with me on this; it should start making sense after a while – if it doesn’t try half-a-dozen single malts and it’s guaranteed to read like a charm.

Post Polokwane Jacob Zuma was the president of the ANC with Thabo Mbeki the national president. While the Mbekiites had been soundly beaten at the party’s national conference and were suffering from a severe case of the mutters, the country was coasting along and waiting for the next election whereafter, hopefully, the NEC and the government would be back on the same page.

In essence, prior to Nicholson’s judgment, it was simply a case of two centres of power with both factions of the ANC sniping at each other wherever and whenever the opportunity arose.

Zumites were, however, acutely aware of the fact that they now controlled the party and would soon be dominating the lists of those destined for Parliament post elections. Mbeki’s supporters, on the other hand, were even more acutely aware that their time had run its course and that a lengthy period in the political wilderness — or at least until the next national conference — awaited them (for more information see Nogshleppers 101).

It goes without saying that there was much bitterness and division among the party faithful and yet, without Nicholson’s judgment, I have serious doubts that Mbeki would have been recalled or Cope formed. The internal battles would have simply raged on as both sides continued to smear each other in public.

Post election 2009 the dispossessed Mbekites would have started taking more and more pot shots at the new boys from the Zuma camp, who by then would be in the plum positions, in order to prepare the way for the demise of the Zuma camp at the party’s next national conference.

In other words the only issue worthy of the party’s full attention being the bun fight over who would be getting the top positions and controlled the direction and appointments of the party rather than the small matter of governing the country.

As the “wonderful” memories of that ANC split start to fade don’t forget to remember how, just a few months ago, we were watching the party tear itself to pieces while the country plodded on seemingly rudderless; control of the party was the only game in town.

A good example of a “democracy”, where one party is so powerful that the only political questions of any importance relate to who controls what and to hell with the country, is Zimbabwe. Zanu-PF’s decades of control, based primarily upon their being the party of liberation, left them short of the radar required to pick up a change in sentiment in the country and without the brains-trust required to ring the changes necessary to adapt to their new circumstances. Loyalty and proximity to Mugabe and his inner circle was considered far more important than initiative and merit, which resulted in a bankruptcy of ideas and a severe paucity of leaders.

Accordingly they neither recognised nor shifted their policies to meet the challenge. Not even a loss in a referendum and two overwhelming defeats in the elections (forget the figures that Mugabe and Zanu-PF contrived to retain power) would bring home the reality that Zimbabweans wanted policies other than those that they were pitching. They just ploughed on regardless with the same old ideas even as the insanity of their application became apparent to all.

The refusal or inability to adapt to the reality was partly down to Zanu-PF, having held almost unchallenged power for so long, refusing to accept that anyone could challenge them, which resulted in promoting loyalty rather than ability, and partly down to the fact that, having been so powerful, they didn’t sufficiently concern themselves with external politics until the results of their demise were thrust upon them by which time they were not flexible or possessed of gifted politicians capable of changing course.

So they stood still and watched while an insane dictator allowed their country to be run over by a moving truck fashioned out of their hubris, corruption and point blank refusal to accept change.

The ANC could so easily have travelled down the same road with similar results. As we saw above less than six months ago South Africa watched as ANC factions tried to tear each other to pieces and the name of the game was power within the party. Discipline was abandoned as private issues were dragged through the press and members openly threatened each other and the country if things did not go their way.

With only the Democratic Alliance offering any resistance of substance the party of liberation knew there was no threat of their losing power. As a result we had the ANC split and an internal battle without much regard for what the country or anyone else thought about it.

Enter Cope, the party with former cadres who also had the required struggle credentials and accordingly the potential to appeal to the majority of South Africa’s voters and suddenly there is a totally new ballgame in town.

Whereas before the ANC had primarily concerned itself with internal squabbles, now it was forced to pay careful attention to the external political landscape. Suddenly the conduct of its members and its policies were coming under heavy scrutiny and inventive alternatives being offered by the Democratic Alliance and Cope.

Immediately the failure to hold members accountable and discipline malcontents became an embarrassment requiring a response or be shown up by the impudent puppy that made a point of drawing attention to how far the party had fallen.

This, in my humble opinion, has seen a vast improvement in many areas. By focusing on the external political battle, the ANC has immediately become a more unified party, thinks and strategises far more about what it says and does, disciplines its members and has even offered olive branches to those within the party who have become alienated by events.

In addition, with the DA and Cope breathing down their necks, far more attention is being paid to policies, the best people to drive them and a stated intention of accountability and an end to cronyism.

Unlike the Zanu-PF, who coasted into a wall, the ANC that emerges from this election will be in better shape to govern than at any point in its history. Gone will be the factionalism within the party and the “anything goes” in parliament. If the party makes racist remarks, blunders or forgets to register candidates as we saw recently, heads will roll. Failure will impact on the whole party because Cope and the DA won’t let them get away with anything.

Long-term this will strengthen the party immeasurably and ensure that it plays its vital role in the future of a prosperous South Africa,

The DA in its turn seems to be reinvigorated by the arrival of Cope. Under their fearless leader Helen Zille they have now begun seeing themselves as a party of government. They have no plans to be part of any coalition that does not share their policies and Cope were on the wrong end of one of Zille’s blast a few days ago.

I still believe that they are short a few black fireballs at the top of their batting order but that is not to say they will not increase their showing this time out. Theirs is a well-oiled machine, which is capable of making inroads and may surprise us all.

Cope itself has the capacity to do major damage to the ANC in terms of its majority and even taking power in the elections following 2009. The key is going to be what inroads it is going to make in the rural communities and the townships.

What is going to be of interest is its election manifesto, which is due to be released later this month. Without doubt the leaders of this party have shown enormous courage in leading the breakaway regardless of the reason for their decision.

Overall South Africa is the big winner with the big issue now being the policies and personalities being offered by the parties rather than the internal war between the two ANC factions. Voters will now feel that they are starting to see real choice in a country where the politicians will be watching each other like hawks, while making sure that they come up with the best products to sell to the electorate or they could find themselves ousted.

I genuinely believe that our democracy has been enormously enriched by the events of the past six months and that the country as a whole is far better off as a result of the arrival of Cope and the re-emergence of the Democratic Alliance.

Meanwhile, spare a thought for the judge. He really did mean well.