Cope and the Democratic Alliance -- the new wind of change?

“The wind of change is blowing through this continent and, whether we like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political fact. We must all accept it as a fact and our national policies must take account of it. (Harold Macmillan – February3 1960)

When I met with Mbhazima Shilowa he advised me that the majority of South Africans, without knowing Cope’s policies, were keen to join them, which showed a need for a new party to challenge the ANC for political power. With the party’s membership already in excess of 400 000 prior to its inaugural conference, this need has clearly been demonstrated.

When I was invited by Helen Zille’s office to a Democratic Alliance launch on Constitution Hill recently, I was overwhelmed by the strong and positive approach of the party leader as she advised the faithful that the DA no longer sees itself as an opposition party but rather as one that seeks to challenge the ANC to become the government of South Africa.

Both parties are in your face and determined to show the ANC that they are not going to be also-rans in the elections of 2009.

While their election manifestos are yet to be finalised, it is in the areas of their mooted policies dealing with the issues that are of the gravest concerns to South Africans, that major inroads into the ANC base may well be made. Crime, corruption, foreign affairs, independence of the public sector; the list seems endless.

Moreover, if the results of the Western Cape by-elections are anything to go by, then the time for the ANC to sit up and take notice has arrived. Of the 27 seats on offer Cope (standing as Independents) won 10, the DA nine, Independent Democrats five and the ANC three. While the ANC could not contest 12 of the seats due to late registration and even though we cannot conclude that people will follow the same voting trends in a national election, there can be no doubting the fact that both Cope and the Democratic Alliance threw down a marker.

Invariably the ANC will point to the fact that these were by-elections in the Western Cape and 12 of which they were unable to contest (which shows the current urgency in administering the party properly). This must not, however, detract from the fact that they would be seriously deluding themselves if they fail to recognise the danger that has manifested itself.

What the ANC urgently needs to ask itself is where this enormous groundswell originates from? Is it simply the Mbeki faction of the ANC or is there something far greater and more compelling driving this bus? Simply a backlash from Polokwane and the recall of Mbeki or a mood swing occasioned by the failure to deal with inter alia crime, Aids, Zimbabwe and service delivery?

Clearly, it cannot be ignored nor wished away and a failure to address the issues through careful selection and implementation of policies may well lead to repeating the mistakes of the Zanu-PF post 2000.

Mugabe and Zanu-PF, having lost the referendum to amend the Zimbabwean constitution, did not realign their policies to meet the wishes of the majority but rather continued with their own increasingly unpopular ideas while using other methods to retain power. These included blacking out the media to dissenting voices, punishing communities that voted against them, murdering and torturing opposition leaders, rigging elections (badly – they still lost) and everything but looking at the policies that made them unelectable.

The ANC, by allowing members to threaten the public, disrupting opposition meetings, arguing about the names of opposition parties, refusing to debate policy with other party leaders, paying lip service to corruption and allowing the debacle in Zimbabwe to continue are not doing themselves any favours.

These issues need to be confronted head on and action not only taken but seen to be taken.

The ANC’s best publicity prior to the election is to be seen to be in control, stable, disciplined and above all the bickering set out above.

What the history of Zimbabwe has clearly demonstrated to South Africans is that if you try to retain power by means of a dictatorship and are dismissive of your electorate, you will, at best, “enjoy” a very limited lifespan. It’s taken the Zanu-PF just eight years from the time they adopted this approach to achieve the complete destruction of Zimbabwe.

The challenge laid down by Cope and the DA could be the making of the ANC in that it forces them to confront issues and evolve. Zanu-PF simply stagnated and oppressed dissent leaving them with a bankruptcy of ideas and leadership.

The ANC now has an election to make :

Do they properly uphold the policies that drove the liberation movement to power and amend them to adapt to the new South African reality or do they become spoilers who believe that their strength lies in threats and disruption?

The outcome of that decision will markedly affect the long-term prognosis for the party.

And once the decision is made they must act in accordance therewith. Where, for example, president Motlanthe places the Pikoli issue before them the ANC parliamentary caucus must reject the dismissal on the basis that it does not comply with the National Prosecuting Authorities Act.

This will demonstrate that the ANC are serious about corruption rather than simply repeating the same old, same old. Walking the talk rather than simply mouthing what they believe voters would like to hear.

While personalities will still play a vital role Election 2009 is going to be driven by issues of policies like never before. Parties are going to have to not only set them wisely but be seen to have the courage to enforce them.

And nobody will have to kill or die for anything.

Cartoon: DA-Cope-Hope?