ANC collective may make it more difficult for Zuma to retain economic policies

It comes as no surprise to me that JZ is charming the pants off the media down in Davos — he is, after all, the most charismatic leader this country has ever produced (and that includes Madiba):

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id =6&art_id=vn20080125025211403C858475
http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/ BusinessTimes/Article.aspx?id=692199

At Polokwane, we watched him strutting his stuff and it really was exciting fare — raw, in-your-face emotion, whether he was singing about grabbing a machine gun or dancing along with the party faithful.

JZ is always entertaining.

The question is whether he can marry that charm and excitement to a measure of steel and avoid flip-flopping as various interest groups in the ANC and among its allies begin to promote their own agendas.

Last week I submitted that while he may not have altered course ideologically, he might well be the vehicle upon which Cosatu and the SACP are building their vision for the future South Africa.

In line therewith I found the Sunday Times interview with Jeremy Cronin, deputy general secretary of the SACP, particularly fascinating.

Cronin confirms that while the SACP is more influential within the party since Polokwane, he does not believe that this will lead to wholesale changes. He concedes that the world is dominated by capitalism, but having said that, the nature of South Africa’s capitalism needs to be transformed — with the state to play a more decisive role and less emphasis being placed on the export-oriented and luxury-imported policies.

Cronin attributes the crisis in education, health and energy to policies aimed at trying to create a business-friendly climate.

At a lecture he gave in the Western Cape for the SACP Joe Slovo Memorial, Cronin warned against revenge politics and cautioned against placating markets by assuring them that nothing will change.

The Young Communist League is also having its say regarding current ANC economic policies and a need for change.

Accordingly, if we gauge events at Polokwane and post-Polokwane, including the selection of the national working committee, then substantial change is at hand — precisely because the ANC is a collective rather than despite of it.

Against this, we must have regard to JZ’s stated support for Trevor Manuel, in part the architect for many of the policies that have been so favourably received both here and abroad — policies that were targeted as too slow or ineffective at the ANC conference in December.

The finance minister has just been removed from the ANC’s national working committee and the political committee that oversees the party’s work in the legislature. JZ’s support for Manuel, which is to be welcomed, must therefore be seen against a backdrop where the party’s new guard seems less inclined to allow him to linger.

Yet even if the delegates at Polokwane decided that the pace of transformation was too slow, they would have had to concede the steady economic progress that South Africa has made under President Mbeki.

In addition, I have no doubt that the high regard that the delegates at Davos have for Trevor Manuel has come to JZ’s attention and occasioned the message of support. Whether JZ can translate that into getting the ANC to reassess its long-term thinking on Manuel and Tito Mboweni is another question altogether.

The ANC acts as a collective, and while this usually affords stability and avoids sudden lurches to the left or right, it can also be less flexible for a leader trying to adjust to the issues confronting the future of our country.

Polokwane showed that the mood of the now more left-leaning collective that is the ANC is to change course and Manuel, as is clearly seen from the steps to oust him, does not form part of that thinking. His fiscal policies, which have kept tight controls on spending, are at odds with those of the collective if the stated ambitions of Polokwane are to be realised.

At least this is what appears to be the ANC’s thinking based upon its conduct.

While JZ assured investors that the policies that have occasioned strong growth will remain in place, it still begs the question whether he has the power to ensure that they do. His confirmation to investors that no individual can change policy because the ANC acts as a collective may well be the very problem — this collective does not endorse those policies.

The collective as it now stands is very much in favour of changing them. If they aren’t, then their verdict at Polokwane on Mbeki and the pace of his transformation, together with their subsequent conduct, is at best mystifying. Moreover, the selection of members to form the new NWC is a clear indication that the new guard plans to introduce material changes to existing policies.

And this is where JZ or whoever assumes the presidency next year has to be careful. Does he have the strength of character to retain the good and fix those areas that have broken down?

This in circumstances where, for instance, City Press was reporting on cracks already forming in the Zuma NEC.

In a collective where the balance of power has swung considerably towards the left, convincing members that economic stability requires more of the same, centrist-type policies may be easier said than done.

Sending out mixed signals like systematically stripping Manuel of his powers and then claiming to support him in public will not go down well with investors. Back him or sack him — flip-flopping creates an image of uncertainty that is poison to any potentially interested parties.

Investors, or lack thereof, may go a long way to making or breaking the ANC’s promises to the people of this country — that finally the poor and oppressed will start seeing material upliftment. Managing the balance between ensuring such upliftment of our people and attracting investors to our country is going to prove difficult.

Yet even in a left-leaning collective a strong leader can make himself heard if he has the steel to do the right thing, retain the positives and set about the negatives — more so if he can match his charm offensive with transparency.

As we have seen, a well-informed public is a well-meaning politician’s best friend and a rogue’s worst nightmare — even collectives, perhaps this one in particular, understand that concept after Polokwane.