The Zimbabwean equation

If all goes according to schedule, the Movement for Democratic Change’s (MDC-T) Morgan Tsvangirai will be sworn in as the prime minister of Zimbabwe on Wednesday February 11 2009. The unanimous passing of Constitutional Amendment 19 has paved the way for the formation of the government of national unity (GNU), and regardless of how we have got here that is the new reality.

In order to move on, I iterate that the refusal to allow free and fair elections, respect the results — even rigged as they were — and intervention by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and South Africa to avoid the smooth transition of power into the hands of the MDC-T as the undoubted winners of the ballot represents a blow to democracy in Africa and the continuing failure of this continent to allow the will of the people to be translated into political reality.

Having said that, the time has come to focus on where we are and take that forward in the best interests of Zimbabweans, rather than where we would like to be. As things stand we are looking at a ruined economy, seven million people in need of aid, disease still running rampant and even the schools struggling to reopen.

Invariably we have to factor in Robert Mugabe, who is currently the subject of increasing sanctions by the United States and the European Union, with the latter having increased the same a couple of weeks ago. These sanctions are correctly targeted at Mugabe and his cronies while aid is being sent by the international community. The latest United Nations aid organisation report, however, paints a bleak picture of the short-term future. As a result of those needing aid increasing dramatically and the global financial crisis reducing donations, it will be unable to provide enough to sustain an adult for a day.

This means that drastic measures are going to be required to ensure that we do not have fatalities the likes of which Africa has not experienced before.

As far as sanctions in respect of Mugabe and those members of the Zanu-PF who have been singled out by the EU and US go, they can remain in place until such time as Mugabe has regained the trust of the international community. In order to assist them they might try keeping an eye out on the weather sites — as soon as Hades is minus 200 degrees the sanctions should be lifted immediately.

That, however, leaves the more important question of how to reintroduce investment, loans and reinforce aid while the country is going through this transitional phase. In this regard there needs to be an understanding that should a Clinton-like approach to Rwanda be adopted here the results may make that debacle seem like a stroll in the park.

A GNU has been or will be created this week, which will result in the members of this transitional government continuously being at odds with each other over how the country should be run. Unfortunately the bulk of this will be in respect of key appointments like governors of provinces and the authority of the Council of Ministers, as opposed to the Cabinet. How all of this will pan out is anyone’s guess right now. The fact is that this is the vehicle that the parties have bought to drive Zimbabwe for the short-term future.

Unfortunately and regardless of how short that period might be, there are seven million Zimbabweans who just don’t have the time to find out. Should it collapse in a hail of bullets and transform into a civil war, or Mugabe experience an epiphany and steer it back towards the kind of democracy Zimbabweans have been praying for, is quite frankly not the key issue right now.

Rescuing the population is.

What is required as a matter of urgency are structures that ensure that the aid goes directly to the people who are suffering from starvation and disease; loans that are made available to the Council of Ministers to be audited by the UN and used to rebuild the country; and investment in Zimbabwe subject to urgent legislation being passed that the government cannot interfere with any company or entity receiving overseas investors.

In addition, the government must be required to legislate that the courts of the SADC enjoy the highest authority in Zimbabwe and appeal, which is enforceable, may be made to those courts against any decision of the Zimbabwean Supreme Court.

If the GNU is serious about rebuilding Zimbabwe, and the fact of the matter is that not many trust Mugabe, then the seven million people at risk cannot be made to pay the ultimate price for this problem. The international community in conjunction with the SADC must urgently structure vehicles to overcome suspicion that they are simply paying for Grace’s next shopping trip while urgently ensuring Zimbabwe gets the help it needs.