Web 2.008

Here’s what I think 2008 holds. Because I’m an ignorant bastard who avoids newspapers and television and gets all my news from opinionated friends, my list can hardly be called well researched. Still, here it is.

1. Hillary
Listen, whatever you may think of Hillary Clinton (South Africans, by and large, don’t seem to care one way or the other) she’s gonna win the Democratic nomination and she’s going to win the US election. You can just feel it the same way you could feel Zuma’s victory long ahead of the time.

Yes, she’s technically a woman and that means the knuckle-draggers in the US bible belt continue to believe she should be focusing on cleaning the dishes. But she has the name, people want change and the Republicans just can’t repair the damage that Dubya has done fast enough. She’s in.

2. Zuma
Personally, my mind goes all blank and starts humming elevator music when I see this guy’s name in another street-pole headline. I know being weary of the news isn’t a great way to navigate the world’s important issues, but honestly, the Zuma thing has now gone from interesting to overdone to smoked bored on white toast.

In any event, Zuma will continue to dominate the news headlines for 2008. He will be put on trial. The trial will drag on. No one will be able to make any sense of the details. The 702 crowd will continue to go on about how he thinks showers cure Aids. And by the end of the year? We still won’t really know.

The NPA has stuffed this whole case up so spectacularly and allowed it to drag on so long it’s hard to imagine how they will ever get a conviction that means anything, even if he is guilty. And just imagine how long it’s going to take. The worst-case scenario, but a very likely one, is that he will still be on trial when elections come around in 2009.

3. Grand Theft Auto 4
When Grand Theft Auto appeared sometime in 1997, it shocked the already easily shockable non-gameplaying population with its violent disregard for the law. A game about jacking cars and then running down civilians and policemen with them may sound quite tame in 2007 (or is that just me?) but 10 years ago it drew a lot of flak.

Still, gamers really didn’t care, and since then the game has gone through three versions with several extra editions, and is due for a IV in what the Americans insist on calling “Q2 2008”.

It will contain the now familiar free-roaming environment in which you can play out your fantasies of being a sociopath, but will offer all the frills of the new gaming platforms in terms of graphics and gameplay. Coming as it does long after games like Manhunt or films like Hostel, it won’t have the shock value anymore. But it’ll still be the next best thing to a real drive-by.

4. Economy
Zzzzz. But we must try to pay attention this year, I think. After several boom years, especially on the local equity and property markets, all the indications are that 2008 will be tougher for everyone.

We have: higher interest rates, nasty oil price, National Credit Act (which hits various retailers hard), Zuma (and related investor uncertainty), higher inflation, various potential global uncertainties. And lots of other stuff I haven’t listed. The prevailing climate is not terrible, but uncertain. It’s a good time to watch all the numbers because we’re at some kind of economic turning point.

5. Internet
There are two important internet issues that will be critical in 2008: first, SA internet bandwidth and second, Web 2.0.

Neither of these are particularly new, but by simply watching these two things, all the important stuff online will be revealed.

SA bandwidth, sigh, double sigh and buggery fuck, who knows. Each year technology pundits predict this will be the year the local telecoms industry will open up and bandwidth will become as cheap as the girls on Harries Road in Illovo. And each year between the cell providers and the minister we are disappointed.

Here are some facts: Neotel is launching, cellular costs are dropping, citywide Wimax networks are in the pipeline, the SAT-3 cable has been nationalised (in theory), a new undersea cable is coming. Whether this means anything will actually change for the consumer this year is anyone’s guess. It’s getting better, painfully slowly, but it is. My prediction is that by the end of 2008 at least one fairly radical new broadband option will exist, and will be the first really affordable, fast access in the country.

It might, however, be a Wimax network in Blikkiesdorp.

Web 2.0 is a rolling, loosely defined but somehow easily grasped thunderstorm of change that’s sweeping the Web. From the now dull-as-ditchwater Facebook to literally thousands of start-up online businesses, this is a boom not unlike the mid-90s. No one can really say how the money is going to be made, or how much is just hype, but when the likes of SAP and Vodacom start wanting to play, you can be sure it’s no longer 25 Hippie Street out there.

6. Gadgets and Tech
I love geeky, gadgety shit. A lot of the best stuff is neither affordable nor available in South Africa. BUT, it’s coming anyway. Look out for cellphones that are closer to full computers, and have big storage and great sound; cheap and user-friendly home media centres; HD TV; and internet-linked gadgets like the awesome Nabaztag (sorry I had this wrong previously), and also audio and video appliances that use the internet as their network.

7. Life
In general, things are going to get more expensive; we will continue to destroy the environment because we’re greedy pigs; trance music will keep teens rushing; advertisers will keep trying to sell us crap we don’t want, thought they might get more sneaky about it and try and “target” us and convince us they really care.

I guess 2008 kind of feels like a “more of the same” year. But they’ve all felt like that since Osama promised a v 2.0 and never delivered. I mean, he set the bar pretty high in ’01 and nothing’s come close since. We live in post-9/11 disappointment with each year that rolls by. Sorry Polokwane, but you don’t come close.

So, I guess my hope for 2008 is simple: let’s see some real action. And I don’t mean a Boeing exploding into the White House necessarily.