Mbeki's exit strategy allied to a tricky Zuma precedent

With more than 130 dead in the aftermath of the Kenyan elections and Pakistan going through a maelstrom post-Benazir Bhutto, it is in the interests of all South Africans that president Thabo Mbeki map out an exit strategy sooner rather than later.

I am not suggesting early elections but rather a measure of certainty being poured on to these troubled waters; an indication of how he proposes to bridge the gap between the two centres of power until the changing of the guard in 2009.

While Jacob Zuma may not have been my first choice, the ANC delegates have spoken and any kudos that the country picks up by demonstrating its independent criminal justice system will be more than wiped out by the uncertainty and volatility that is certain to follow his being charged.

Since Polokwane we have seen the indictment of Jacob Zuma; condemnation thereof by inter alia the ANCYL, Cosatu, the SACP and their youth league; and any number of threats by members of the NEC against ANC members of the government and those perceived to be their allies.

This even before a line could be drawn under 2007.

We are advised that 218 witnesses have been listed by the state for the Zuma trial — a list that includes people from within and outside the ANC.

As a criminal attorney, I can tell you now that the chances of this trial coming close to conclusion prior to the 2009 elections are very slim indeed. Any attorney or advocate involved has to advise his client that haste in concluding this trial won’t result in a presidency but rather a term of imprisonment. It has to be dealt with carefully, which in this case means slowly.

This will infuriate the JZ supporters and strangle any hopes of adequate preparations for a smooth transition after the 2009 elections.

It is a trial that can only divide the nation.

As I observe the sentiment surrounding the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, I cannot help but wonder at how relevant it is to us here.

The former Pakistani prime minister was also under a cloud of corruption and yet in death all segments of the population openly condemned the act that removed her from the political arena — gone were the allegations of corruption and ridiculing the policies that defined her; in their place a deep regret at her passing and the hatred it has unleashed.

South Africa is a melting pot where, in the main, people seek that which unites us.

Yet here is the ruling party, at war with itself and threatening to destroy everything that has been achieved by the Rainbow nation post-apartheid.

We are not talking about some petty internal squabble but a hatred that is so divisive that it has people threatening the president that if he doesn’t account to Luthuli House he’s in danger of being shunted aside.

And there is a wall of anger from the Zuma camp, who openly accuse the president of being behind the decision to charge the ANC president. Whether or not there is merit in the claims, the perception, which is everything, is that he was.

Where does that leave the country?

The first meeting of the NEC is on the January 7 2008. At this meeting the national working committee will be chosen. A week later the party leaders and members of the government meet to map the way forward.

It has always been my understanding that Jacob Zuma would be a team player who worked within the policies set by the party, and in particular by the NEC.

Here we have an NEC and government involved in a pissing war — which will cascade rather than trickle down to the members, occasioning anger and further division.

Rather than the “no-sudden-jump-to-the-left” South Africans were promised, we may well be in for some tough measures aimed at putting the president under pressure as the vehicle of delivery, and the possibility of a no-confidence vote in Parliament and continued sniping between the two factions.

It does not serve any purpose in denying the existence of factions if the conduct of the leaders thereof confirms it on an almost daily basis.

The time has come for the party to reign in both factions and prepare an exit strategy that is satisfactory to both. Remember that the government, which one faction occupies and the other hopes to take over soon, is responsible and accountable to all South Africans, not just the party.

President Mbeki has given his life to the freedom of all South Africans and must be afforded the dignity and respect that and his position merits. He in turn must unconditionally and unequivocally confirm to all South Africans that his time will end next year and a smooth transition to Jacob Zuma will take place. Anything less will be seen as a continuation of the above.

Jacob Zuma, as the ANC president and national president-in-waiting, must be afforded the same respect for a life dedicated to uplifting the people of South Africa. Until he is convicted, if he is convicted, he remains innocent of all charges.

The government and the ANC must defuse the situation by speaking with one voice when it comes to matters of policy and the position of each member. It does not become anyone to threaten fellow members, let alone senior leaders of your party, in public — it merely incites hatred and division.

The NPA might want to take a long, hard look at itself. It must be asked whether someone with a bit of diplomacy and tact should not be drafted for future decisions regarding cases of this magnitude. The fact that this case was launched before tempers from Polokwane had had the chance to cool does not do the organisation any credit.

When all is said and done, I would not have prosecuted because the interests of South Africa have to take precedence over the interests of justice and any points-scoring.

Yes, it’s a precedent we should not be setting but it’s a whole lot better than the alternative — polarisation leading to increasing friction (violence?) between the two factions occasioning substantial political and economic damage.

This democracy is too young and too fragile for this case. If you think I’m wrong, re-read this during August and let me have your comments then.

May you all enjoy peace, prosperity and good health in a wonderful New Year.