Zimbabwe negotiations are bound to fail

There has been a lot of jubilation and misguided excitement about the recent Zimbabwean negotiations, what with the European Union praising Mbeki’s mediation effort and the brokering of a memorandum of understanding.

Surprisingly this song and dance has not been witnessed by the protagonists (Zanu-PF and MDC) themselves. Clearly this should be a sign that our jubilation is a result of sheer excitement without analysis.

The recent handshake by Mugabe and Tsvangirai has been wrongly read to mean a possibility for peace and democratic change. This cannot be further from the truth. It is not the first time that Mugabe shakes the hand of his opponents. He did with Nkomo, but continued the massacre at Matabeleland, killing thousands of Zimbabweans. If handshakes and hugs could solve conflicts life would much better in Africa. Unfortunately, it’s not the case.

For negotiations to achieve anything, at least one, if not both, of the parties to the conflict should be willing to compromise and meet the other halfway. In Zimbabwe, this is not the case. Both Zanu-PF and the MDC have entered negotiations with diametrically opposed interests. Zanu-PF demands acceptance for the sham June election, while MDC expects recognition of the March election results.

Most importantly, this includes a defence for the land reform process, which particularly benefited Zanu-PF leaders.

This clearly shows a gulf in expectations; hence it is impossible to reconcile these diametric interests. There is no way that Zanu-PF is going to make any compromises that would accede political power to MDC, even if that would include a power-sharing compromise.

The reason for this is that, unlike in South Africa, Zimbabwean black capital exists directly through the Zimbabwean state. It is not a case of indirect relations that lead to crony capitalism, such as we have in South Africa, where black capital is indirectly connected to the state and the ANC. The land reform process is an example where economic reform directly benefits members of the state machinery from ministers to army generals and not their wives or cousins.

This creates a situation where loss of state power would result in a direct loss of economic power or accumulation. This is why Zanu-PF has clung on to power despite a collapse in legitimacy. In South Africa, what made the transition easier was that you could give away political power, but could retain economic dominance — hence the white elite acceded when resistance was no longer possible.

In fact, Zanu-PF has already shown signs of unwillingness to compromise. It has not yet released MDC political prisoners. It continues to batter MDC supporters in the rural areas. It continues to deny access to food supplies to all those it suspects of supporting the MDC, even while the negotiations are under way.

Zanu-PF will not compromise, but it it expects that the MDC should. But the MDC did not enter negotiations out of its will, but through pressure by Mbeki and other political actors and is therefore less likely to give anything. To it these negotiations are just another mechanism to prove how unreasonable and selfish Zanu-PF really is. But if it gives power to Zanu-PF, it would have totally sold out and surrendered the fate of Zimbabweans to dictatorship in the same way Zapu did when it merged with Zanu.

When I say the MDC cannot compromise I do not mean they may not agree to power-sharing. I do not mean that they may not allow Mugabe to remain state president, or guarantee him immunity to prosecution. Those are peripheral matters and can be agreed to without an impasse. What will be most important is who will be dominant or in charge of the compromise government or government of national unity (GNU).

Government dominance is what both actors are actually looking to acquire out of the negotiations. Government dominance is what will guarantee who will be in charge at the end of this power-sharing period. It will also determine who will dictate terms on economic policy and direction. So if the MDC would compromise on this, it would have not only sold out, but would have joined the hall of fame reserved for opportunists and selfish morons who would do anything to secure a better salary and life regardless of the penury suffered by the majority. Surely Tsvangirai knows better than this.