Why a revolution in Zimbabwe is destined to fail

Can the Egypt/Tunisia revolutionary model work in Zimbabwe? Many of us Zimbabweans who have watched over the years with impotent anger and often hapless bombast as the Zanu-led thug regime has desecrated every democratic ideal in its war against its own people have repeatedly asked ourselves this question. The comparisons between Zimbabwe and Egypt are compelling: both were/are headed by aging, brutal dictators who have adapted all state apparatus to keep their tight-fisted control of the country and its resources in place. Both have young dynamic, aspiring populations and as Trevor Ncube’s insightful piece points out, both have long-standing scores to settle with their governments. But upon reflection I have come to the sad conclusion that here the similarity ends.

Positing the possibility of a popular revolt in Zimbabwe is guardedly optimistic at best, wilfully naive at worst. Ncube’s wonderful piece is a mixture of both. Assuming a popular revolt does break out, Ncube’s faith in its possible success hinges upon two main ideas/speculations: the first that some of the rank-and-file officers of the military may not adhere to the strictly partisan beliefs of their superiors thus maybe they’ll refuse to fire on their own people. Secondly, he thinks that even if they do decide to fire upon innocent people, the sight of hundreds of innocents killed will focus the world’s conscience and goad the international community in general and South Africa in particular to force the regime’s hand. The first assumption is mere speculation, which may or may not be justified. We would have to also hope that in addition to the rank-and-file resisting the use of force, the gangs of thugs and militiamen who are relied upon by the regime (reports in 2008 suggested that there may even have been involvement of Angolan military in the intimidation of voters in villages) will be vanquished. The second assumption that even if the worst extent of the state’s repressive apparatus is brought upon innocent people, the ratcheting up of the body count will force the region to react is equally speculative and places undue faith in the spineless leaders of our region. Let us not forget that in recent years, during Operation Murambatsvina when millions of people were displaced and thousands lost their livelihoods in the informal sector, creating a massive humanitarian crisis, the regime was not so much as rapped on the knuckles for its callous behaviour. Even more recently, in 2008, when reports were emerging of whole villages held under siege for voting for the opposition during which torture, rape and murder were rampant, the region led by Thabo Mbeki hardly expressed the slightest concern. Indeed, Mbeki’s “there is no electoral crisis in Zimbabwe” comment underlined for most Zimbabweans the gruesome complicity of the region in sustaining Mugabe’s evil rule.

So what hope is there for change in Zimbabwe? Popular revolt may indeed come to fruition given the sheer futility of existence in the country being felt by one and all. Yet let us remember that even in Egypt, it wasn’t the futility of existence or the networking capacity of the youth alone that brought down the regime. The military had become less supportive of the Mubarak regime after he had decided to install his son Gamal as his successor without consulting them. When the popular revolt broke out, the military sensing an opportunity did not resist the popular wave of discontent but waited for US to give consent to his removal. When the US gave its backing to the military, he was swiftly swept out of power. The only hope for change in Zimbabwe therefore is an internal squabble within the top brass of Zanu-PF/military in which some individuals side with a popular protest in removing the central elements of the regime. Therefore, despite my admiration for Ncube’s work and his insight, I strongly believe no popular revolt in Zim will work just yet.

By a Zimbabwean student who prefers to remain anonymous.