Who’s it gonna be?

Unlike the Fifa World Cup where even a favourite team can be eliminated in the pool stages, the outcome of rugby’s premier tournament is far more predictable. The winner must be one of New Zealand, Australia or South Africa, with England and France in with an outside chance. Odds on the sixth favourite team, Ireland, range from 30-1 to 50-1. Wales may be worth a flutter at 50-1 and Argentina at about 150-1.

But back in 2007, there could have been few people predicting a South Africa vs England final, especially since both teams played in the same pool and South Africa had beaten England 36-0. Down and out England was the surprise package of 2007, knocking off Australia and then France who’d beaten New Zealand.

How about it Wales?

My friend has an interesting theory. He’s betting on the Ozzies because the winning team always loses in the quarter-finals of the previous tournament. Excluding the first World Cup won by New Zealand in 1987 (since no sides had played before) and South Africa’s 1995 win (since they had not played before) this statement is almost true. In 2003 the Boks lost in the quarters to New Zealand and then won in 2007, in 1999 England lost in the quarters to South Africa and then won in 2003, in 1995 Australia lost in the quarters to England then won in 1999, and in 1987 Australia lost in the quarters to Ireland and then won in 1991. Okay, okay. Australia didn’t actually lose to Ireland in 1987, but they very nearly did in their 1991 quarter-final at Lansdowne Road.

But if my friend’s quarter-final theory is correct then it’s one of New Zealand or Australia for the Webb Ellis and it’s no surprise that they’re the bookies’ favourites to contest the final.

But before that happens, Australia may have a little bit of quarter-final jitters when they meet Wales in Wellington. I’m looking forward to that match and hoping the Welshmen announce their resurgence at the Cake Tin.

Upsets aside, it appears South Africa’s destiny is October 18 in Auckland. I believe we have a fair chance of beating the All Blacks, despite the coach saga, the Smit saga, the old players’ saga. Form players are hitting their straps: Bismarck, Brüssow, Alberts, Hougaard. Hopefully Aplon and Lambie will be brought into the mix. Fourie and Du Preez are due a big game. A mix of experience and fearless youth is what is needed to ambush the All Blacks. You don’t have to swallow a beast to choke.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This weekend will dish up some crucial intelligence. How good are Ireland, our probable quarter-final opponents? They take on Australia in the crucial match of Pool C. And how good are we really, when we clash with Fiji in Wellington?
For those looking for amusement in the long break between games, check out YouTube for the South African anthem for English speakers and the New Zealand Web Ellis lament, sung to the tune of Smokie’s Living Next Door to Alice.

And a quick quiz question, who won the play-off for third and fourth in 2007? Don’t look it up.