Who’ll the All Blacks play in the final?

If betting odds are any indication, then New Zealand will play England in the final of RWC 2011. The weekend’s results have caused a major shuffle at the New Zealand TAB. While Australia and South Africa remain as second and third favourites respectively to win the tournament, their odds of making the final are now worse than England, France and Ireland!

The odds are as follows: (to win, to make final)

New Zealand: $1.60 — $1.30
Australia: $8 — $5
South Africa: $9 — $5.50
England: $9 — $2.75
France: $10 — $3
Ireland: $20 — $4.50
Wales: $20 — $5.50

The All Blacks are out-and-out favourites to contest and win the Webb-Ellis. It’s almost like the only question in town is: who will they play in the final?

It was supposed to be Australia. But, for those not following the tournament closely, Australia’s defeat to Ireland means that, on current probability, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia will find themselves on the same side of the tournament with only one of the teams progressing to the final.

The Springboks, through no fault of their own, now have what would seem the most difficult passage to victory: Australia, New Zealand and then the best of the Six Nations teams. Contrast this with 2007, where they encountered Fiji, Argentina and England on their way to the Cup.

Saturday’s game against Fiji was a great fillip for Bok fans. Danie Rossouw had his best game ever in the Bok jersey and thoroughly deserved his man-of-the-match status. As the No 5 lock — he normally substitutes Bakkies Botha at No 4 — he was also responsible for the line-out calls. Of interest too is that one of the best Bok scrums of the day came with Francois Louw in the lock position!

South Africa came into this tournament under pressure from media and supporters back home. One imagines the hysteria had it been the Springboks, and not the Wallabies, on the receiving end of the Irish resurgence. That game puts into perspective the Boks win against Wales and the value of cool heads and experience under pressure.

Brett Harris, in The Australian, punts the chances of Italy beating Ireland and the Wallabies still topping Pool C. And if not, he asks, why should beating South Africa and New Zealand in back-to-back games be so daunting? Australia won their last two games against the Boks and two of their three against the ABs. Harris argues that the Aussies needed to lose a game in order to win the Cup. We can certainly learn something from their positive attitude and mindset.

Destiny was supposed to be October 18 in Auckland. It has all changed. Now it’s nine days earlier in Wellington against Australia. I think they should send Hannes Marais over to hand out the jerseys.

Peter Church is the author of the thriller Bitter Pill. You can read the first chapter at www.bitterpill.co.za