Where's the outrage? - Thought Leader

The electricity-supply crisis that has South Africa’s economy in a mortal grip has been predicted for years. Though these pessimists had only basic arithmetic, elementary economics and common sense as qualifications, they can today claim vindication. That years of regular blackouts would be this country’s lot, however, was known both within and without Eskom since at least the mid-1990s. If our central planners had analysed things closely, assuming only moderate economic success post-1994, they could have foreseen this even in the 1980s. Doesn’t “power rationing” sound awfully communist?

In many ways, the crisis caught South Africans completely unprepared. In early January, I wrote a column dismissing low-wattage fluorescent light bulbs as an ineffectual and expensive eco-fetish, and that even if some people prefer them, governments should not force such a choice on consumers by doing something stupid like banning incandescents.

That column now appears spectacularly ill-timed. Even if the arguments remain valid (which they do), they’re rather beside the point now. I had not considered a catastrophic failure to meet electricity demand very likely. In short, I was too optimistic about the promises and competence of the government. I was naively willing to believe the repeated lies we were told by the Eskom fat cats and government bureaucrats that they had things under control.

The government failed its citizens in the most irresponsible, negligent and incompetent manner possible. Eskom directors got paid millions in “performance” bonuses. The shareholder that employs them — the government — seems to think telling the media now and again that there is no crisis constitutes due performance.

The shortage of electricity, even if it turns out to be mild in the long run, potentially has extremely grave consequences for economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, price inflation, small-business survival and investor confidence both here and overseas. Everyone except the idiots who caused the crisis says so.

Yet nobody has been fired. Our politicians didn’t even feel it necessary to shift the blame by some token dismissals of powerless and innocent underlings. They seem to think that saying sorry will make everything alright.

They feel they can get away with sending out press releases such as this:

As part of the nationwide effort to tackle the country’s electricity shortage the ANC will mobilise every ANC minister, deputy minister, member of Parliament, member of a provincial legislature, councillor, organiser, member and supporter behind this effort.

This follows the decision of the ANC national executive committee lekgotla last week to make this response a centrepiece of the movement’s mass work for 2008.

The NWC was briefed by Minister of Minerals and Energy Buyelwa Sonjica on government’s urgent and extensive response to the current electricity situation. It noted that the success of this programme in dramatically improving energy efficiency will depend on the contribution of all South Africans and all sectors.

Why weren’t they behind the effort to prevent the shortage? What did they get paid for all these years?

The meeting noted the massive investment already committed to significantly increasing generating capacity, but recognised that immediate action will need to be taken in improving energy efficiency to ensure the power remains on until the new generation capacity comes on line.

It is therefore critical that South Africans respond to the energy-saving proposals made by government, for industrial, commercial and residential consumers.

How can they blithely shift the responsibility and make this the problem of all South Africans, as if we did something to deserve this? How can we just bleat meekly and accept this? How can we just accept the necessity, brought upon us by government bungling, of having to invest fortunes (that some of us cannot afford) in low-power devices, solar water heaters and gas stoves? We’re going to have to do this anyway, but where is the outrage over the idiots that caused it? Why don’t the people demand that heads roll?

When California got hit by blackouts, the electorate revived an old and obscure measure that permitted them to revoke the mandate of an elected representative they felt had failed them. California’s governor, Gray Davis, became only the second state governor in the history of the United States to suffer a recall by popular vote. To add insult to injury, the reliably Democratic state of California replaced him with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now that, ladies and gentlemen, is outrage.

Over at Moneyweb‘s sister publication, Politicsweb, James Myburgh makes a thoughtful case about the inevitability of the ANC majority, and what might bring about its collapse.

Myburgh compares and contrasts with the Indian National Congress (INC), which after liberation had a hold on the Indian electorate not unlike the dominant grip the African National Congress has here. The two parties also historically share strong socialist instincts. The INC was eventually unseated because “how can the people see Congressmen as other than office-seekers without scruple and office-holders without merit? How long can the party live on its capital?”

Likewise, Myburgh argues, the ANC government has, by several recent events, been exposed as both “without scruple” and “without merit”. “At some point the ANC’s hold upon its support is going to break. It is just a matter of when,” he concludes.

But then you hear moonstruck, positive-thinking delusions like those of journalism professor Guy Berger, and you despair for the future of this country.

Then you hear things like Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin telling us with a straight face that neither the current crisis nor longer-term electricity supply rationing, will harm our economy. I kid you not. The guy has an honours degree in economics from the University of Natal, Durban, so this leaves four options:

Alec Erwin learnt nothing in economics lectures.
The University of Natal, Durban, isn’t worth attending.
Alec Erwin thinks the people the government lords it over are idiots.
Alec Erwin is on crack.

There’s a good start. Fire the fellow. Please. There’s a bolt loose in his head. Maybe it’s sabotage. I’d recommend a brain scan, but that would be a waste of electricity at the taxpayer’s expense.

Then start going down the list:

Jeff Radebe, Erwin’s predecessor, who was told umpteen times to expect a crisis and failed to act, in the vain hope that the government’s half-baked plan to establish independent, private power producers under severe price and market controls would somehow come off, and who failed to act when he saw that it didn’t.
Jacob Maroga, current Eskom CEO, who joined Eskom in 1995. At the time of his appointment, Eskom was talking about a five-year, R150-billion expansion plan for generation capacity, and a supply shortage that would last until 2010 or 2011. Recently, Maroga casually mooted capex of R1,3-trillion (almost $200-billion) over 20 years, which amounts to raising annual capex by a factor of two-and-a-half after five years. For good measure, he added: “If there’s anybody to blame, I’m the first in line.” So, off with his head.
Thulani Gcabashe, former Eskom CEO, still under multimillion-rand contract to Eskom to help with capital expansion plans. Not only did he fail to raise sufficiently loud alarms, but he also reportedly told then energy minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka that South Africa would never run out of power. Fire him, but make him repay his “performance” bonuses first.
Mohammed Valli Moosa, chairman of the board of Eskom, and recently elected to the ANC’s national executive committee. He should go, along with financial director Bongani Nqwababa. The raft of well-paid but clearly superfluous non-executive directors might as well leave too: Mpho Makwana, Zee Cele, Wendy Lucas-Bull, Versha Mohanlal, Jacob Modise, Uhuru Nene, Errol Marshall, Lars Josefsson, Sintu Mpambani, Allen Morgan, Brian Count and Mustafa Bello. This includes only “major directorships”, whatever that may mean. What on earth are all these hordes being paid for? Heads. On spikes. The lot of them.
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, former minister of minerals and energy affairs, and current Deputy President. Received the 1998 White Paper on the Energy Policy of South Africa from her predecessor and directly contradicted its contents by insisting, apparently on the word of Thulani Gcabashe, that no crisis was looming.
Buyelwa Sonjica, current Minister of Minerals and Energy, who had the temerity to tell a special parliamentary sitting that we shouldn’t focus on the past, looking for people to “crucify, crucify, crucify”, but look forward. “There is no need to panic about future investments,” she said, gainsaying every observer and economist outside the government and Eskom. But if she’s promising that this is the last time she’ll be telling citizens and businesses to buck up, shut up, write off sunk costs that assumed adequate electricity supply, and bear the cost of conserving energy, there’s a way to make sure of that. Since we’re going to have to do that anyway, we can modify her plan in one small respect. Add a new step one: off with her head.
Thabo Mbeki, for being the Gray Davis of South Africa. As president, he most of all must take responsibility for the central planning policies that failed to avert the impending crisis in electricity supply, not to mention the simple fact that he repeatedly lied about it to the elected Parliament and to the people of South Africa.

If any of them had any honour, they’d resign. Failing that, here’s hoping that a no-confidence motion that will be tabled when Parliament reconvenes on February 12 2008 will give the ruling party the swift kick in the posterior it deserves. For heaven knows it’s true. Who could possibly have any confidence in a bunch of people that not only spent the past decade mismanaging the energy sector, but also proceeded to lie through their teeth about it while collecting massive performance bonuses for their efforts?

Excising the rot is the first step on the way to recovery. So if heads don’t roll over this catastrophe, what confidence can the people of South Africa have in anyone else in government, or their ability to address the crisis?

(This article was first posted on my own blog.)