This is a theory I’m hatching … Would appreciate some feedback. The premise: trying to look forward and predict what will happen in the adoption cycle of social media. It is, of course, only when we look forward, that we can invent truly differentiated and unique ideas.
Its background thinking to this graph goes along the lines of:
1. The “new” web started off great.
2. Then the crowds came.
3. The level of crap increased.
4. Aggregators and networks opening themselves up to search allowed us to cut through the clutter.
5. The level of crap increased.
6. THE FUTURE. The hype cycle ends.
7. THE FUTURE. We figure out how to measure the social conversation.
8. THE FUTURE. True “semantic” web is born.
9. THE FUTURE. Business catches on. Conversation increases.
10. THE FUTURE. Hype cycle starts again.
11. THE FUTURE. The crap is there. We just don’t see it anymore. Content is intelligently tagged. Peer review helps selectively parse content before it even reaches you. Communities become even more dependent on their central personalities to drive the sorting and tagging process.
Sounds possible.