Submitted by Marius Redelinghuys
Not only has thinking the unthinkable become more apparent, but touching those formerly considered untouchable seems ever more likely, as an examination of the virtues, vices and future of the “Shikota” movement illustrates.
Shikota appears to pose a significant challenge to the electoral dominance of the ANC, especially as support for and the efforts of Shikota appear to be gaining momentum, specifically in the Cape provinces, and with possibility of it making significant inroads in at least seven provinces.
For this to materialise, Shikota will have to tap into, not only their own strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities, but also those of the ANC and the changes in the electorate in the period between 1994 and 2004.
There are changes in the electorate (surveyed by Schulz-Herzenberg) that include fluctuations in partisanship and an increase in electoral volatility. Coupled with broadly ineffective and unrepresentative opposition and increased voter disillusionment, it would seem as if South Africa is more than ready for increased electoral choice that taps into the divided support-base of the ANC.
The base is not only currently divided into Mbeki versus Zuma loyalists, but has traditionally been made up of contrasting socio-economic, cultural and ethnic divides. Significantly, debate over the new party has led to an increased interest in politics, which is predicted to bring about an increase in electoral participation in 2009 to an estimated 78%.
The erosion of Jacob Zuma’s fan-base; suggestions of voters ditching the ANC because they are “fed up with party infighting and the leadership vacuum”; and “ordinary South Africans” losing faith in the ANC highlight key areas in which Shikota can tap into the ANC dominance.
To obtain tangible support Shikota will have to identify its present key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and combine it into a workable campaign strategy. When surveying recent statements of the key figures this can be outlined as follows.
Its strengths include its disassociation with the current ANC and ANCYL leadership; its support from Mbeki-loyalists and emphasis on modernisation and post-Stalinist discourse, which appeals specifically to the middle class; and finally, its ability to appeal to and mobilise support in seven provinces.
However, the same strengths could just as easily be seen as weaknesses, as a close association with Mbeki and a characteristically middle-class emphasis will not suffice in gathering widespread support and legitimacy. Additionally, the movement lacks the organisational strength, grass-roots mobilisation and specifically funding that the ANC possesses. It will have to appeal to donors to overcome the lack of a funding system from the Represented Political Parties’ Fund.
The new party also has an unprecedented opportunity to tap into sectional interests in the traditional contradictory ANC base, and as such can appeal to the upcoming middle class — currently constituting approximately 27% of formally employed black people — and the South African business elite.
Furthermore the opportunity of the movement to shed itself from the “ideological baggage” of the ANC alliance allows it to redefine its objectives, orientation and has a modernising effect appealing to an increasingly transformed electorate. A final opportunity presents itself in the form of the possibility of vying for non-partisan and minority support — specifically Indian voters in KwaZulu-Natal and white voters — who are seen as increasingly important since the emergence of factionalism in the ANC.
Finally, the greatest threats to the movement is pre- and post-election violence and intimidation, which could demoralise the campaign and scare off voters, as well as the possibility of a backlash of the strong historical affiliation with the traditional ANC as the natural party of government.
An effective Shikota campaign strategy would include an intensive effort to get-out-the-vote and tap into the electoral volatility, the contradictions in the ANC support-base and the dissent of ANC members. This can be achieved by building up a strong grass-roots campaign organisation that reaches beyond high-profile figures and includes a substantial volunteer corps, as well as an intense effort to obtain donor-support and raise funds.
It should present itself as a viable alternative to the ANC if it wishes to garner sufficient support; formulate clear, concise and viable policy proposals; and, as suggested Patricia De Lille, build a party that goes beyond rallying around anger. An effective campaign strategy would also have to include the identification and targeting of potential voters from among the demographic groups discussed, and specifically the black middle class and the youth, as well as intensive effort to increase voter registration and participation.
There are many current events that appear sure to change the South African electoral and political landscape in the foreseeable future, specifically the expected increase in political awareness, electorate participation and public political discourse.
Shikota could pose an effective challenge to the ANC’s dominance in 2009, even if only as a strong and viable opposition. Through organisation-building efforts it could further consolidate gains in future elections and bring about a substantial change in South African politics. This will translate into improved responsiveness; greater electoral choice; an expansion of the role-players and decision-makers in the policy process; and increased performance.
These developments bring exciting prospects for much-needed democratic consolidation after 14 years of the centralisation of power, resources and the domination of the agenda in both government and the ANC.
Marius Redelinghuys is a third-year political science student at the University of Pretoria, an aspiring academic and one of the 2009 Mandela Rhodes Scholars. His study of international relations and political science has its roots in an intense interest in these fields, and he enjoys actively engaging in discussion and debate surrounding issues of racial and social transformation in a post-apartheid South Africa.
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