Submitted by Marius Redelinghuys
For many, including myself, it is very difficult to imagine any other political home outside or beyond the African National Congress.
This is particularly difficult to imagine as the ruling party has often been seen as the “natural party” of the people as it fought against the oppressive and exclusive apartheid machine and produced struggle heroes, veterans and great thinkers and leaders such as Nelson Mandela, Ahmed Kathrada, Govan Mbeki, Walter Sisulu, Lilian Ngoyi and Oliver Tambo, to name but a few.
It is and has been these great men and women of the movement to whom people have looked for guidance, not only politically, but also socially and morally, as they represented the very foundations of the ANC and its principles as espoused in the Freedom Charter.
These principles and leaders have, for almost a century, succeeded in guiding and containing the at times opposing views held within the ANC attributed to its “broad church” nature and the contradictions in its support base.
This was perhaps much easier seeing that until 1994 there was a common enemy: the apartheid government. Combating it as a united front served the best interests of everyone, not just a particular interest grouping within the nation or party.
Recent events in South Africa’s political history, however, are painting a different picture of the ruling party and are, in my opinion, starting to clearly reveal the tensions within the support base of the party especially as the pressures on and roles of the ANC as a party are rather different than those of a liberation movement, which it has been for the greatest part of its history.
Reports of a possible split in the party following the “recalling” of President Thabo Mbeki and the resignation of a number of ministers put in office by Mbeki have now been brought to the forefront of discussion, specifically as a result of the more recent resignation of Gauteng Premier Mbhazima Shilowa and ongoing tension between Luthuli House and the premiers of Limpopo and the Free State.
For the first time in democratic South Africa’s history, the media and the people are buzzing about the possibility of a split in the ANC (not just a break-up of the tripartite alliance, as has been threatened countless times before). People are going beyond thinking the unthinkable and are considering it. The ANC has denied it, the ANCYL said it will smash it, Shilowa has shied away from it, Ma’Mbeki said she supports it and Lekota and others have been implicated in it. Commentators have hailed it as necessary for vibrant democracy as the electorate is hungry for choice, and there have even been possible names in circulation such as the South African National Congress or, hearkening back to the old, the United Democratic Front.
Taking into account many of the arguments in political science literature and building on the arguments of those proponents of substantive uncertainty — the uncertainty of political office and outcome that leads to greater competition and performance — as necessary for consolidating and building democracy, I cannot help but become excited about a split in the ANC.
Even if we are, speculatively, to take into account the more or less 40% of the vote that Mbeki gathered at Polokwane and detract that from the 69,69% of the vote the ANC as a whole obtained in 2004, it would mean that the SANC/UDF would be able to, in theory, bank on at least 27,87% of the vote in 2009, leaving the ANC with 41,82%. Not only would neither party be able to gather the necessary 50% + 1, but it would also open up a world of possibilities in the form of a coalition government, either between the ANC/SANC-UDF or between either one of these and opposition parties, at least at the national level.
One possible outcome would be an ANC/SANC-UDF coalition, which would necessitate the sharing of key government posts, and a perpetuation of tension in government and also between two parties vying for power.
The other possible outcome would be a broader coalition between the SANC-UDF and the DA, ID, UDM and IFP, which, when taking into account the 2004 elections, would translate into approximately 51,19% of the vote, just enough to build a government. The latter option would, of course, include broader interests and bring to the table new capacities and an interesting mix of political cultures and policy objectives.
However, the current political situation can further lead to decline in voter turnout due to disenfranchisement from and disillusionment with politics in South Africa, or perhaps may even see the electorate being fired up and turn out en masse, especially within ethnic minorities such as white, Indian and coloured people who have seen a sharp decline in voter participation since 1994.
A split in the ANC, in my opinion, despite the threats of violence, can only be good for South Africa’s young democracy, not only by giving the people more of a choice, but also because it would lead to greater and more intense competition and an urgent need to perform.
This has been an exercise in speculation and by no means covers all the nitty-gritty of the situation, especially not the difficulty of a coalition government and the dynamics of voting behaviour and voter perceptions. It also assumes that it would be relatively easy to break away from the ANC, despite the comfort of predictability, stability and certainty. It also does not fully take into account the effect of the Motlanthe presidency and the possibility of Motlanthe being the ANC’s preferred candidate for the presidency in 2009.
It does, however, assume increasing dissatisfaction and intensified factionalism within the ANC, especially from Mbeki loyalists and the continuation of a perceived purging of those loyal to the former president from key positions. It is an exciting topic to debate and discuss, and definitely ensures that we continue to live in interesting times.
All things considered, though, I would urge those who are dissatisfied, disillusioned and disenfranchised to think seriously about a split in the party, not for personal gain, not in the name of revenge, but in the name of a young democracy hungry for consolidation and in the name of the people still waiting for the benefits of democratic rule. Competition ensures performance, and now, 14 years into democratic rule, we need our leaders, our government and state institutions, above all, to perform.
Marius Redelinghuys is a third-year political science student at the University of Pretoria and an aspiring professor/academic in this field. His study of international relations and political science has its roots in an intense interest in these fields, specifically public policy-making and contemporary issues in South African politics. He also enjoys actively engaging in discussion and debate surrounding issues of racial and social transformation in a post-apartheid South Africa, with the hope of collectively building a better future for all
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