The first Super 15 has come and gone, Sanzar made their TV rights money and there are complaints abound at its elongated format.
I am happy that the Reds won the tournament, not only because I called them as the champions after week four, but because the have played consistent, high quality rugby. The rugby bus now really starts to move, particularly in a Rugby World Cup year.
Now it is time for the Tri-Nations. Moaning no doubt will ensue from the Wallabies camp, but less so from the Kiwis about the “brand new” Bok group touring for competition, with 20 top Boks sitting on the injured/rehab list.
In this ever-turning wheel questions are asked as to why the Tri-Nations must be played. The answer is simple: money. The tournament will be played and once again we are going to hear about teams forms and how behind the Springboks have fallen, all the rugby coaches from their homes making calls. By the way, I could be classified as one of the home-bound coaches yet my call is different and not as definite.
On my radio show I have stated that I do view the Super 15 as a reflection of what we might see at the Rugby World Cup, an Australia-New Zealand final, with the other two top four positions to be the Springboks and Argentina or a Northern Hemisphere wannabe team.
Will the Tri-Nations render the same result? I will make this definite statement: if Australia wins the Tri-Nations they will cement themselves as the absolute favourites for the coveted William Webb Ellis trophy.
However, the World Cup is a vastly different challenge to the Super 15 and the Tri-Nations. The tournaments up to now have really been won by the teams conceding the least tries through solid defence patterns as opposed to the team that scores the most tries. Looking at the recent style of the Wallabies — and even the Reds — there is an ambiance of innovation, creativity and youth in Australian rugby. Making the youngsters like Giteu and Barnes senior players are all game breakers. The Aussies will, in my opinion, still need to firm up the forwards but they are not too far behind at all.
The tournament in New Zealand in September still presents a very different prospect and one would be weary of spending major money betting right now. Without spending the money, I believe this year of rugby will belong to the Wallabies.
Robbie Deans owes his native homeland a very stern message for overlooking him for the All Blacks position after 2007 and he has brought a modern ingenuity to the Wallaby game. He has toughened them up and brought in some incredibly exciting youngsters. I think the All Blacks will buckle under home-ground pressure after having choked at the last two World Cups and losing to SA in 1995.
The Springboks have lacked coaching since the departure of the new ACT Brumbies Super Rugby coach and 2007 Bok World Cup winning coach Jake White, and they have failed to blood new talent as Jake did from 2004 to 2007. I would not suggest that Pieter De Villiers expect a contract renewal.
The Argies will remain the ugly cousin in the Southern Hemisphere until they play at the highest level regularly.
As for the Northern Hemisphere teams, it seems only France can pose a challenge to the stronger South, but you just never know who will show up for the French on the day.
The British lions teams can look forward to beating the likes of Tonga, Fiji, Samoa and the USA — maybe.
The 2011 rugby bus is an ever changing beast and as exciting as it remains I still believe the World Cup should be the only international tournament, but then I am not benefiting from the bucks, am I? My blood remains green and I love the Springboks, but my head is definite on how I see the 2011 Rugby World Cup looking. Good luck to all.
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