The Unbearable Lightness of Listlessness

Many of us, fellow Thought Leader blogger Bert Olivier included, were quite amazed at the list of the 12 Biggest Questions he quoted from the German magazine Wissenschaft in a recent blog posting.

They were
* What is reality?
* Why are we not immortal?
* Is there a world formula?
* What happens, or is happening, at the Earth’s core?
* What was there before the Big Bang?
* Can all illnesses be overcome?
* Could machines become more intelligent than humans?
* How did life originate?
* What is the shortest route for garbage collection? (An unlikely-looking candidate!)
* What does the universe consist of?
* Why do we sleep?
* Will we ever know everything?

Now the cynic in me is yelling and gesticulating frantically behind the sound-proof glass to be let loose with some sarcastic ripostes, but I like lists so I’m going to ignore him. For a while at least.

TIME magazine devoted an entire issue to lists last month and, while some of them are typically bland and parochial Americana, others are thoroughly fascinating. Like the Top 10 Most Fuel-Efficient Cars being all Japanese brands except for a Ford hybrid. Of the rest, four are Toyotas.

Or the Top 10 Scandals of 2008 — and we South Africans just loooove a good scandal, don’t we? I particularly enjoyed cogitating over the Top 10 Religion Stories as well as America’s Top 10 Under-Reported Stories. They made space for the Top 10 Green Stories of the year, the 10 Fastest Growing Jobs (mental note to self to check it out when in States), Top 10 US Lottery Jackpots (aah, the stuff of dreams), the Top 10 Medical Breakthroughs, the 10 Greatest Discoveries of the year and, of course, the Top 10 Financial Meltdowns of the year.

TIME also kindly left a space for readers to jot down their top 10 whatever of 2008.

But this is all backward looking, as journalists do, I thought. Where are the predictions? Where are the top 10 things we can expect in the coming 12 months? Not cop-out predictions like having a general election (yawn!) or crime will continue to rise (duh) or the curse of the ANC will continue to touch everything with the opposite effect of the Midas Touch. We know all that.

Then I found a very badly sub-edited piece on News24.com (what’s new about that?) of SA’s most famous futurist Clem Sunter’s list of the 10 things that are going to have maningi impacts on us this year.

Working with the amazing Chantell Ilbury, Clem — whose delphinidian smile tickling the corners of his mouth always makes me wonder if he is really serious — says:

1. In the context of the financial crisis (which even Mr Happy Trevor Manuel is now acknowledging is going to hurt us much more than we anticipated), there will be many “False Dawns” of which we should beware. Basically, these would be false prognostications of economic upturns.

2. Clem predicts the demise of many famous brand names, corporate and individual, too old and decrepit and inflexible to weather the economic storms.

3. What he calls “Colony Collapse” with specific ecological emphasis on bees, which are disappearing at breakneck speed in America and China. Natural honey could be a new gold.

4. Coupled with this will be politicians less inclined to work hard at fixing the environment — not that they ever did anything worthwhile anyway. Again the driving force behind this lethargy will be the economy and energy issues.

5. On the upside though, Clem and Chantell predict the rise of the consumer as the one who dictates economic survival. We’re already seeing this as the hyper-expensive Woollies drops prices to try to win back customers who have swarmed to Shoprite Checkers. Clem, a man long at the helm of Anglo American and should know whereof he speaks, advises we demand “a better deal” — especially if we can flash the cash.

6. “China Meltdown” is the term Clem uses to describe the looming shutdown of the lifelines thrown by China’s phenomenal economic surge. This is going to be felt especially keenly in Africa, where many economies have become dangerously dependent on China. The implications of more continental hardship cascading from country to country a la Zimbabwe onto an economy such as ours are quite obvious.

7. Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists have been a major worry for Clem since 2001. The threat in his view has not diminished at all. Here I agree with him. As the Fifa World Cup draws closer and SA’s dismal record with anti-terrorism counter-intelligence shows little sign of improving, all forms of terrorist threats loom larger by the day. We are a prime target for any terrorist group and the slapdash state of security around stadiums throughout the country at the moment is an open invitation to prepare for an event to equal or even surpass 9/11. As people continue to move away from highly vulnerable big cities, the troubles inherent in a dispersed populace will re-appear.

8. On the next point, Clem and I disagree. He sees a “Homecoming Revolution” as expats return due to the economic strains overseas, while I see a sustained brain-drain across more and more economic sectors. SA will not be less affected than the US, UK, Australia or Europe by the ongoing economic crisis. We will only feel it in different ways and the horror of a Zuma-led government, Constitutional tinkering, weakened judiciary and a somewhat limp-wristed Fourth Estate — coupled with the Alfred E Neuman “What me worry” mindset of too many people who should be deeply concerned — is a fertile launch pad for seeking greener pastures. The fact that expats over the past 15 years have built a formidable reputation for South Africans as hard working, creative, diligent and of high moral behaviour stands the current swarm of young intellects leaving in excellent stead. They will always be welcomed.

9. To global cheering, Clem sees the endgame for Bob Mugabe. Dealing with the aftermath though will be as challenging for the ANC under Zuma Simpson as it will be for the rest of world under the leadership of Barack Obama.

10. Clem goes out on a limb and predicts 15% of the vote in April going the way of the Congress of the People. The best scenario will then be a severely chastened ANC which, despite the cavernous mouths of Gwede Mantashe, Julius Malema, Blade Nzimande and Zwelinzima Vavi, might realise government’s first duty is to serve, then, and only then, to rule. He also predicts two provinces and multitudes of municipal governments changing hands, which every right-thinking patriotic South African will welcome. But which could be a doubled-edged sword leading to a proliferation of Khutsong-type conflicts as the two non-ANC controlled provinces grow and flourish while ANC-controlled ones continue to languish in their current states of disarray and poverty.

All things considered Clem and Chantell paint a less than rosy picture of the coming year. They are scarcely alone, are they?

I suppose that’s why I list towards Bert’s big questions of science and TIME’s Top 10 Gadgets. I’m a sucker for rays of hope no matter how transient or shallow.