Spin bowling: A look into cricket’s future

It’s June 4 1993. The first Ashes Test has entered its second day as Shane Warne steps up to bowl to Mike Gatting. The ball pitches nearly half a metre fair way outside leg-stump, bites, bounces and turns. The rest has now become folklore.

The Ball of the Century was the threshold from which Shane Warne evolved into cricket’s first international superstar, where his exploits became known beyond just cricket circles. Warne, playing his 11^th Test at the time, would go on to become Test cricket’s greatest wicket-taker before being overtaken by another wrist-spinner, Muttiah Muralitharan. The Sri Lankan may have turned the ball into the right-hander, but unlike the classical off-spinner, he used his wrist to impart spin on the ball to such a degree that his mastery of loop and turn was almost unmatched. Anil Kumble was another wrist-spinner who made a significant impression on the game’s landscape over the last decade.

The last 20 years represent modern spin bowling’s golden era. From being a method that was only kept alive by the great Pakistani leg spinner Abdul Qadir in the 1970s and 1980s, wrist spin went on to dominate the international game to such a level that spin bowling, especially wrist-spinners, rivalled and surpassed their seam bowling colleagues. Cricket is a game of numbers and the figures tell a story of a resurgence, which changed the face of the game. What is even more startling is the art’s very sudden decline over the last two years, in part due to Warne, Kumble and now Muralitharan leaving the stage for the final time.

These googlies, leg spinners and flippers benefitted from the knowledge bankruptcy within batsmen’s techniques and mindsets when playing wrist spin. These three bowlers took the first, second and fifth most wickets (Glenn McGrath and Shaun Pollock occupied third and fourth) for all bowlers between the start of 2000 and the end of 2005. Even more impressive is that their 884 combined victims is only 21 wickets less than the combined tallies of the seven next best spinners under them, with wrist spin accounting for 29% of that total through Danish Kaneria and Stuart MacGill’s contributions. Of the 1 789 wickets taken by the top 10 spin bowlers in this period, wrist spin accounts for 64% of the total.

The second half of the decade has seen wrist spin’s contribution decline markedly. Muralitharan and Kumble are still first and third with 350 combined victims, but off-spinner Harbhajan Singh now lies second with 154 wickets. The next seven bowlers have taken 711 wickets between them, with Danish Kaneria accounting for 118. MacGill and Warne’s contributions fall outside the top 10, having retired in 2007 and 2008, with Kumble also calling it a day in 2008 incidentally. Of the 1 215 wickets taken by spinners between 2006 and the present day, wrist spin’s contribution nearly halved to 38%.

The last two seasons, from 2008 to today, make for even bleaker reading from a wristy’s point of view. Of the 778 wickets taken, Muralitharan contributed 77 as the lone wrist spinner, just above 10%.

Wrist spin’s decline has also dragged down spin bowling with it — 574 less wickets taken by spinners if the first half of the decade were weighed against the second. Seam bowling accounted for 1 920 total wickets in the first period and 1 362 in the second. This means that spin bowling, from being attributable for 47% of all wickets taken between 2000 and 2005 has slid to 36% for the second half of the decade. 2010 moves into 2011, spin bowling finds itself facing an identity crisis.

This crisis is being met in exactly the same manner as before, with a lost art once again finding its feet due to, in part, the lack of respect shown to it during wrist-spin’s modern era of dominance. Off-spinners, while not on nearly the same level as wrist spinners, are becoming dangerous bowlers to face once more. Graeme Swann is the leading wicket-taker this year, while Paul Harris’s slow left arm is in danger of being usurped by Johan Botha’s off-spin. Nathan Hauritz, for better or worse, is Australia’s current No1 spinner, as is Harbhajan Singh for India (though his average over the last five years sits at an underwhelming 34, about eight runs worse than the first half of the decade). Jeetan Patel, Ajantha Mendis (on occasion), Shane Shillingford and Chris Gayle have all done duty for their sides with the ball in hand. Slow left armers are represented by the excellent Daniel Vettori, Shakib Al Hasan, Sulieman Benn and Pragyan Ojha, but it is Swann that leads the wicket table.

It is still early days to predict a resurgence of off-spin bowling in Test cricket, but the guard has certainly changed with the sheer lack of wrist spin on the international stage. Steve Smith is seen as a future Shane Warne, an albatross around the neck for any young bowler if there was one. Amit Mishra is currently out the Indian side.

Perhaps wrist-spin’s decline can be attributed to the way the game has changed over the last 10 years. Ten years ago, there was no T20 cricket, fewer Test matches were played and run rates were lower. Steve Waugh’s Australia changed all that through often pushing past the four-runs-an-over mark during a given day of Test cricket, piling huge totals in no time. Other sides followed suit, and it is no coincidence that Warne, Muralitharan and Kumble played for sides that put big totals on the board for them to bowl at. Spinners need runs to be fully effective because dismissals are often constructed via giving away runs before either the batsman makes a mistake (all the Paul Harris way) or through being outsmarted. Spin bowlers, like quality seam bowlers but even more so, need time to develop and learn their craft due to its context within the game itself.

Fast bowling is a 100m dash to spin’s 800m. Spinners also need more nerve and an aversion to feeling bad about conceding runs, since that comes very much with the job. If a quick bowler drops the ball back of a length, there is a reasonable chance the batsman won’t score depending on the line. For a spin-bowler, back of a length is too short and if the batsman is of any quality, he should be sending the ball to the boundary.

In today’s current climate, there is less time to nurture wrist spinners considering the packed nature of the international schedule and the results-driven mentality that is part of the game’s current gluttony. Why this has happened shouldn’t surprise anybody since it is market forces that have pushed the game this way. Players are products where their reputation off the field is just as important as it is on it. TV rights have to be sold. The high number of fixtures is also a reason why genuine fast bowlers are so rare to find considering the treadmill that is the international calendar. Their bodies are broken down, grinded into dust till they can barely stay fit for a few months before getting injured again. Shane Bond, Brett Lee and Fidel Edwards. The fact Dale Steyn has lasted so long without getting injured till the recent Pakistan series is a miracle. What is scary to think about is whether the stiffness he was showing in his arm on the field during the 4^th day is only another aberration of the beginning of the end which Allan Donald experienced in his later years on a non-stop basis.

The game is changing, and if the powers that be don’t realise that the game’s current model is unsustainable, like the current world economic system, destruction is the next logical step. There is time to save the situation, but whether the administrators (not the International Cricket Council, which is puppet of the Indian authorities) on the respective national boards see it is another question entirely.