Why the Stormers won’t win Super 15

A look at the Super 15 log with one game to go before the play-offs begin (finals series? Bah) shows an interesting trend. The Chiefs top the log one point ahead of the Stormers, holding steady in second. The Brumbies are third, four points behind. However, the Stormers have only lost twice this year while the Chiefs have suffered defeat three times and the Brumbies five times. How is it possible then that they are only second, and not first, and kilometres ahead of Jake White’s Australians?

The answer is bonus points. The Chiefs have accumulated seven (11.1% of their total points haul), while the Brumbies have earned a whopping 10 since the start of the season, 17.2% have their overall total. And the Stormers? Two from 62, which equals 3.2%. Of the other three teams in the top six, the Crusaders have eight of 56 (14.2%), while both the Bulls and Sharks have 10 of 54 respectively (18.5%).

This seems to be a repeat of last year, where the Stormers had the best defence throughout the whole competition, until they came up against a monster Crusaders pack in the semi-finals and trailed 10-23 at half time at Newlands, and were not able to add to that total as the Crusaders ran out 10-29 winners.

The problem for the Stormers is once they go behind, which hasn’t happened often this year, same as last year, finding their way back is a problem since they can’t rely on crossing the try-line as consistently as other teams.

The Stormers, for all their defensive brilliance in conceding the least number of points in the competition (233), have not scored four tries in a single game with both of their bonus points coming in close losses to the Crusaders and Sharks.

The Capetonians have scored more points (324) the Lions (297) and Force (282) while the rest of the top six, being the Chiefs (419), Brumbies (388), Crusaders (447), Bulls (435), and the Sharks (402), have all outscored the Stormers, who wrapped up the SA conference last weekend.

The Stormer’s defence is the rock on which their game is built, but with a backline containing five Springboks, surely Cape fans were expecting more points then they have currently scored via the whitewash. The Chiefs (44), Crusaders (43), Sharks (43), Bulls (46), and Brumbies (40), have all scored more tries than the Stormers (26), who have scored the least tries in the competition.

The Stormers have only let in a measly 18 tries, also the least in the competition, meaning that 40.1% of their points have come from the boot. The Bulls (52.8%), Crusaders (48.1%), Chiefs (52.5%), Brumbies (51.5%), and Sharks (53.4%), all have higher try-to-point ratios than the Stormers.

Other statistics which should be of concern, especially if the Stormers fall behind in their coming semi-final:

The Stormers have scored 61.5% of their tries in the first half, and 36% in the first 20 minutes before the Cheetahs game this past Saturday. While only 11% of tries conceded took place in the first 20 minutes, 44% happened between the start of the second half and the 60th minute.

The first half has been their highest scoring half in two-thirds of their games, with the Stormers being ahead in 11 of the 15 games at half time. They have been outscored in the second half seven times out of 15 (46.6%), by an average of seven points before they played the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.

All these statistics suggest that while the Stormers are the definition of defensive masterclass, if their defence breaks down, even a little, they are vulnerable because of their inability to score tries on a regular basis especially if it is a tight game.

Who their opponent will be will depend on what happens this weekend, but of the likely top six, either one of the Crusaders, Sharks or Bulls, on their day, have the ability to outmuscle the Stormers pack and put them on the back foot.

The Brumbies at the beginning of the season might have represented the easiest challenge, but in Jake White they have a meticulous coach who knows the way South African teams play. His success as Springbok coach was also built on the back of defence initially. The Brumbies will not be an easy team to beat for the Stormers.

It doesn’t seem possible that the Stormers won’t fall behind at some point, and when they do, be able to overhaul their opponent’s lead, especially if it is more than seven points. The season has gone according to plan pretty much, but gut feeling and the statistics above suggest this will be another year of disappointment in Cape Town.

If they do win it, they will be the greatest defensive team in Super rugby history, and one of the worst on attack. See what I mean?