DA by-election victories interrogated

Submitted by Marius Redelinghuys

Nobody can deny the DA’s landslide — overwhelming — by-election victories in Cape Town’s 2nd and 79th wards. The by-election results indicated a 96.34% showing of support for the DA in ward 2 and 79.38% in ward 79.

Moreover, one cannot deny that these by-election victories are marked improvements on the 2006 local government election (LGE) results for the DA in the same wards, winning ward 79 and improving their original showing in ward 2 with 14% (up from 82.34%).

However, there are a few things that need to be mentioned in order to truly understand or make sense of the results. First, in terms of by-elections, it is important to stress that the voter turnout is unfortunately low (it is not a public holiday, but a working day) — compared to national and provincial election turnout levels — which obviously affects and inflates results. Here it is particularly important to mention that lower voter turnout levels were registered in the 2009 by-elections in the aforementioned wards than those of the 2006 LGE.

Only 36.07%, or 5 131 of the 14 236 registered voters in ward 2 bothered to show up on March 25 this year, compared to 58.26% or 7 633 of the registered 13 172 voters. Similar patterns are observed in ward 79 — a turnout of 37.35% on March 25, or 6 428 of 17 211 registered voters, compared to the slightly higher 42.78% in 2006 — patterns also observed in the two wards the party took in Ekurhuleni (21.49% and 26.39% turnout). This basically means that only 34.72% of the registered voters in ward 2 and 37.34% of the registered voters in ward 79 support(ed) the DA through the ballot box on March 25.

Secondly, the dynamics of local government elections are very different from that of national elections because of the single member constituency representation system, versus the national and provincial party list and proportional representation system. In other words, inhabitants generally know their ward councillor candidates personally or more directly than their national and provincial representatives and candidates. In short, voters in wards vote for people more often than party policy in local government elections. The implications of this will become clear below.

Finally, while I concede that by-elections are at least a minor indicator of electoral trends and public opinion, their focus is almost always limited in scope and reach — emphasising local and municipal issues and problems. The DA’s performance is then tied to its performance in the DA-led coalition government in the City of Cape Town, inferring broader national and even provincial trends from these two by-election results is dangerous and incredibly irresponsible.

The overwhelming victories for the DA in the city of Cape Town on March 25, when analysed, actually confirm worrying features of the party’s support base and supports the claim — and the findings — that its support base is mostly white (63.5%), have obtained matric or have received a tertiary education (69.6%) and live in metro areas (69.7%) i.

This is backed by the fact that, according to the 2001 census findings, ward 2 is composed of 84.83% white, 10.29% coloured and only 3.29% and 1.60% black African and Indian inhabitants, respectively ii. With a lower turnout and predominantly white, middle-class and educated demographic features, it is therefore no surprise that the DA’s support in ward 2 was as high and really says nothing about the party’s extension into the black African electorate.

The increased support for the DA in ward 79 — up from 37.76%% in 2006 to 79.38% on March 25 — is explained at the hand of two factors. First, the ID councillor having won the ward — Mr Dennis Cecil Williams — “defected” to the DA and ran on the DA’s ticket for the by-elections. The ID’s support was at 38.75% in 2006, and it would be naive — taking into account the above general features and trends of by-elections — to deny the fact that this particular individual brought with him extensive levels of support from the ID. Secondly, the ward is largely composed of coloured inhabitants (95.90%) iii, with the DA having national average levels of support from coloured people at 35.1% (and roughly similar levels of support for Cope and the ANC at 22.2% and 22.7% respectively) iv.

The results of ward 79 also indicates the inability of the DA to take away support from the ANC — as its support base fell by roughly 5% from 12.23% in 2006 to 6.91% in 2009, in the light of the advent of Cope (2.6%) and the 8% for the ID losing 30% overall with a lower turnout (in terms of actual number of voters) even with 2 000 more registered voters in the ward than 2006.

In conclusion, as is generally accepted in political science circles, the by-elections do not say anything conclusive about the DA’s national and / or regional support. The elections do, however, reinforce the already set conceptions that the party relies heavily on white, middle and upper-class urban support levels as has been found as recently as last month by Ipsos-Markinor, indicating that the DA has repeatedly failed to make significant inroads into the majority electoral race group — black Africans — of which 78% still supports the ruling ANC.

The by-election results, therefore, should instead be seen as a stern warning for the DA and should highlight that it should (a) consolidate its current support base in the light of the advent of Cope, specifically as DA support levels have decreased nationally since October last year after the formation of the new party; and (b) extend its support base into the black electorate to avoid being seen as a single issue, single or narrow interest, regional party, much like the IFP.

Redelinghuys is an honours student in political science at the University of Pretoria, an aspiring academic and member of Cope. His study of international relations and political science has its roots in an intense interest in these fields and he enjoys actively engaging in discussion and debate surrounding issues of racial and social transformation in a post-apartheid South Africa

________________________________________________________________

i http://www.thetimes.co.za/pdfs/MarkinorPPSupport.pdf
ii http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/stats/2001census/Documents/2006%20Ward002.htm
iii http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/stats/2001census/Documents/2006%20Ward079.htm
iv http://www.thetimes.co.za/pdfs/MarkinorPPSupport.pdf