Mangaung: Zuma 1 - Malema 1

The road to Mangaung is getting increasingly interesting and nastier. The media is also playing its role in askew and misleading reporting on the recent Limpopo ANC provincial conference and party elections to make it even nastier.

I was totally confused to see various news outlets reporting that Malema has been thrown a lifeline by being voted onto the Limpopo ANC PEC. No one though seems able to explain how this lifeline will work or what exactly it is. He is still facing suspension and his case is still to go before the ANC’s appeals committee. Unless of course the media is of the view that his new position will result in the NDCA finding in his favour. As far as we know, they can decide either way.

In my view, Malema and company were trying to prove in a show of strength that, regardless of the suspension meted by the disciplinary committee against him, he still has massive support with branches. This was to show that the young man from Seshego was not just a force in the ANCYL but also a force in the mother body. It was never meant to be some sort of life line but a strategic move sideways preparing for the oncoming onslaught. His voting onto the PEC is purely academic.

It seems things did not work out exactly the way they were planned. From the onset, I must make it clear that a win is a win regardless of the margin. But scoring a mere 50% of the vote in your own province can hardly be called overwhelming. I would have expected both Malema and Mathale to have swayed more votes, at least in the 70s.

Can this be read as support for Malema in his home province is waning? If so, will the trend be worse in other provinces that he had claimed? Will it now be hard for him to influence other provinces of his cause if he can’t show convincing support in his own backyard? This remains to be seen.

While one can never underestimate the Malema factor in the battle of Mangaung, one must not forget that he is merely standing proxy for some leaders who are the real contesters against Zuma and his allies. Most notable among these is Fikile Mbalula. This alliance, of which Malema stands proxy, could simply cast him aside if it was felt that he doesn’t hold the same influence like he used to. It was interesting to note that Mbalula hasn’t been seen around his close ally and friend since Malema was found guilty by the ANC NDC nor was he seen in Polokwane to help garner votes for Malema.

The difference between Polokwane 2007 and Mangaung 2012 is that in Polokwane there were two clear adversaries but in Mangaung the battle is being fought through proxies. This makes it more complicated and dirty. In Mangaung anything can happen. Deals can be struck that will guarantee people certain things for 2017 and they will be more susceptible to such deals since they never in any case battled and came out in public as contesters.

Mbalula is a brilliant organiser who would have rallied the forces behind Malema and probably got him a more respectable vote at the weekend. His conspicuous absence raises questions but then it could be that they were so confident they didn’t see the need for the Mabalula razzmatazz.

That Malema and company scored a goal against Zuma and his allies is no doubt. It just wasn’t a spectacular goal they were hoping for. Malema did show that he had decent support within the mainstream ANC but in doing that he showed his opponents that his support could be waining. He showed that despite the military beret and shower songs, he was vulnerable (not saying Zuma isn’t vulnerable). Did he play his hand too early?

One thing is clear, Malema’s strategy is to create a momentum that will will carry him to Mangaung where he seems confident that delegates will reinstate him. Clever strategy, but it might not be palatable or even suitable for those he stands proxy for in the leadership battle. Who will do their lobbying during the year in the build up to Mangaung? I’m sure they would have liked him to tone down the rhetoric and even apologies in the hope that they might sway the NEC to review the decision to suspend him if the NDCA upholds it.

The way I see it is that the NDCA will find against Malema and maybe even mete out and even harsher sentence given his continued devisive and I’ll disciplined actions and his continued taunting of President Zuma. That will make it 2-1 to Zuma. Malema backers in the NEC might be able to gather enough support for an NEC review, that will make it 2-2. It will then be up to the conference at Mangaung then to have a final say.

But while they are busy with Malema DC issues do they think Zuma and company will be resting on their laurels? I think not.