JZ's a joke - Thought Leader

The president of the Republic of South Africa is a joke, or so a Facebook group proclaims — almost shouting — “JACOB ZUMA is A JOKE (We are Disgusted and tired)” (sic). The group created after the revelations of the president’s love child with Irvin Khoza’s daughter, currently boasts in excess of 9 300 members (9 312 to be precise). Topics discussed on the board range from the suspension of the president, questions around a potential second term in office and the issue of women’s rights and representation.

However, it would be foolish to claim that (a) all 9 312 members share those sentiments (a cursory overview reveals this) and (b) it is a representative sample of the South African population (limited internet accessibility, via a PC or mobile phone, and self-selection bias negates this possibility).

Despite commentary and articles in newspapers countrywide giving the impression that even staunch ANC members are increasingly disillusioned and disappointed in the conduct of the president and the movement, there has been no credible survey data to suggest a general shift in public opinion.

Even though there might not be a tangible shift in public opinion, as yet, there are real indications within the political circles of the ANC and its alliance partners that the president is walking on thin ice.

Allister Sparks claimed that Zuma is “a lame duck a mere nine months into his presidency“, while internal to the movement reports have labelled increasing tensions as an “open rebellion” against the president. Unionists are increasingly dissatisfied, even lamented their support for the person of Zuma instead of pro-working class policies, and the president’s most trusted side-kick, Julius Malema, even turned against him.

Even the ANC itself is less optimistic in their support of the president and increasing dissatisfaction within the party has potentially damaged Zuma’s prospects of a second term.

Adding insult to injury recent revelations about Malema’s reported lavish lifestyle and rumoured kick-backs from tenders have lead to an equally vehement response on social networking sites, news articles and opinion pieces from supporters and opponents alike.

Interestingly enough most of the vehemence and expressions of disgust on social networking sites have come, not from the “racist white opposition”, but from the ANC’s traditional support base: black South Africans.

If there is indeed a significant shift in public opinion following these recent events, its impact on the political landscape does not necessarily bode well for opposition parties. Only time will tell whether such a shift will materialise and whether we will see a reversal in the trends of partisanship / non-partisanship in the voting age population (VAP). Dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the ANC has, as Collette Schulz-Herzenberg illustrates¹, in the past not necessarily led to an increase in support for opposition parties.

While, in 2008, 48% of the VAP were declared ANC partisans, only 12% were declared opposition partisans. Additionally, 40% of the VAP did not vote in 2009, while only 20% voted for opposition parties and 39% for the ANC.

It is clear that even in 2009, even with the emergence of Cope, the imagination of 40% of the VAP was not captured by the alternatives available.

If opposition parties want to tap into these no-voters and potential partisans shed by the ANC, they will have to convincingly demonstrate and formulate effective strategies to position themselves as viable, credible and legitimate alternatives to the ANC.

As Rapelang Ramosa wrote on the “Zuma is a joke” group: “Everything rises and falls on leadership” (John C Maxwell), and “an organisation cannot rise above the level of those who lead it — if that is indeed true, what about a nation?”

If we are to consider the president a joke, then the joke is on all of us.

¹ Schulz-Herzenburg, C. 2009. “Trends in Party Support and Voting Behaviour, 1994 – 2009”, in R. Southall and J. Daniel, 2009. Zunami! The 2009 South African Elections.