How will the global financial crisis impact emigration?

The news this year has been full of reports about emigration. Whether it’s a survey revealing widespread pessimism, a desire to emigrate or indications that 18% of properties on the market are related to South African residents leaving the country permanently.

But now, with world markets in turmoil and emigration destinations either already in a recession (as in the case of New Zealand) or about to enter one, it’s hard to imagine that there will not be an impact on the number of South Africans who are able to leave the country and, once they do, make a living elsewhere.

To be sure, the factors that contribute to emigration, or the desire to emigrate — crime, political instability, BEE and employment equity — are still very much in place. Wanting to leave is all very well, but emigration is an expensive and time-consuming process. Moving to a new country with a weak currency is a challenging prospect without a guaranteed job to go to, and there’s the rub: emigrants are going to find it a lot harder to land a job, wherever they go.

Look at South Africa’s favourite emigration destinations. News reports have predicted job losses in the millions in the UK. The Australian media has been reporting on the flight of Australian expats from the UKin response to a weakening job market and relatively strong Australian dollar — and all of them will be looking for jobs. New Zealand, as mentioned, is in a recession; as for the Canadian situation, it’s hard to say. Canada never features in the news anywhere. It’s as if there’s a black hole on the globe between American and Sarah Palin-land.

Overall, it doesn’t look good.

Those South Africans who are able to leave quickly will be those with skills in high demand — mining or resources come to mind, as do aircraft technicians. Of course, there are those sectors that are relatively cushioned by the economy; regardless of the state of world markets, people are always going to need doctors or nurses. Anyone in a service industry, however, will probably be faced with a steeper uphill battle than they would have had to endure in a less fraught economic situation.

Indeed, some South Africans hankering after life on the other side of a large ocean might start to think twice about leaving. That, in fact, relatively speaking, it’s not that bad in Dainfern. And that life with Jacob Zuma, Julius Malema and the local criminal gang has its downsides, but what other option is there?

I suspect that a lot of would-be residents of Adelaide and Auckland, Birmingham and Brisbane are going to have to hou vas and hang around for longer than they planned.