How the US elections work (part one)

If you are confused by primaries, caucuses, electoral votes and delegate votes, join most Americans in your frustrations. Forget “one man, one vote”, and take an aspirin while you sift through the confusion.

Here is a brief synopsis:

There are obviously two main political parties in the US: Republican and Democrats.

The election process begins with a multitude of candidates representing each party, but the number whittles down as it becomes clearer who the population does and does not support.

First, the population votes in primaries or caucuses. In theory, the people are voting for the person they would like to sit in the Oval Office, but in practice they are merely voting for representatives (delegates) who will vote for the specific candidate at the party convention.

Bear in mind that :

the US is a federal system; and
each state has different representation in Congress (each state has two senators in the Senate, but the number of congressmen in House of Representatives varies according to the size of the state. California, as an example, has 50, but Wyoming only has three).

The primaries elect delegates who are authorised (and obliged) to vote for a specific candidate at the party convention. Each state has as many delegates as it has members of Congress. The winning candidate, as determined at the convention (and not the primary), then goes on to campaign for the presidency.

Here is where it gets tricky: the Democrats and Republicans have a different approach to how they assign their delegates. The Republicans in most states take the “winner takes all” stance, and the Democrats assign the delegates proportionally to the vote.

So, for example:

If 51% of Californian Republicans vote for McCain, and 49% vote for Romney, all 50 Californian delegates are obliged to vote for McCain at the Republican convention. Romney gets no benefit from getting an almost equal number of votes from the Californian public.
If, however, 40% of Californian democrats vote for Clinton, and 60% vote for Obama, then 20 delegates will vote for Clinton in the Democratic convention, and 30 delegates will vote for Obama (there is a 15% minimum requirement to receive delegates).

A person can only vote in one primary, either Democratic or Republican.

But it gets even more complicated. Both parties have delegates at the convention, known as superdelegates, who are not chosen by the people but by the party. These superdelegates can vote for whichever candidate they wish. As a result, in 1968 the Democratic nominee was Humphrey, although his name did not appear on one primary ballot! Thankfully, changes in convention rules have made a repetition of this unlikely.

Usually there is a clear winning candidate before the convention, but right now things are pretty much up in the air. The last time that there was no clear party winner prior to a convention was in 1976 when Ford defeated Reagan.

Super Tuesday saw 24 states hold their primaries or caucuses, and (by my count) there are 50 more primaries to go. The last ones will be held on June 3.

Then, the Democratic convention will take place from August 25 to 28, and the Republican convention will happen from September 1 to 4.

In theory, the sooner a state holds a primary, the more likely it is to affect the convention outcome. That is because candidates who do well in the early primaries have a better chance of gaining financial support for campaigning in the later primaries. Also, public opinion is swayed by early results. Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire go first, but many states are moving their primary dates forward to increase their influence on the final result.

But not so fast. The parties are trying to stop early primaries by “punishing” the states that move their primary dates to the beginning of the calendar. The Democrats are punishing Michigan and Florida by refusing to accept their delegates at the convention (about 8% of all delegates), and the Republican party is accepting only half of the delegates from Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyoming (cutting out about 5% of delegates).

Remember, the primaries and conventions merely determine who will represent each party in the final stretch of the race.

So where do they stand?
Right now, McCain is ahead in the Republican race, having won most delegates (remember, it is mostly a winner-takes-all strategy with this party).

On the Democratic side, Clinton won the big states, but Obama won more states. Since delegates are assigned proportionally, and there are many primaries to go, there is no clear winner here. It is possible that the winner will only emerge at the Democratic convention, where 792 delegates will seal the fate of the two candidates.

Each of the Democrats raised about $100-million for the campaigns, but that is being depleted fast. McCain’s coffers are not as full, but it is possible that he forms an alliance with one of his opponents, Huckabee, who would become his vice-president. This would probably ensure McCain’s victory at the Republican convention.

The actual election
The actual election in November is just as complicated, and certainly the “one man, one vote” does not apply then either.

But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.