Cricket’s new world order

Epochs can defined by many different things: an era-changing event, a ground-breaking personality or a shift in dominance from one party to another that takes place over a gradual period of time which often crosses the finish line via what would normally be construed as a meaningless event.

For the Cold War, it was the fall of the Berlin Wall that let the international community know that communism as an economic force was finished. In South Africa’s turbulent political history, PW Botha’s government opening negotiations with Nelson Mandela (in secret) is in hindsight a watershed moment for that signalled when the Nats finally realised that they, in the long run, were done. Change is gradual, comparable to the shifting sand dune, which from one day to another changes itself from the gradual caress of the daily wind.

This metaphor applies extremely well to cricket, and even more so to Test cricket. Test cricket is the addition of hundreds of moments (or deliveries depending how you look at it) with the full analysis of a session being the best means by which we figure out who is winning, or to repeat the American television series The Wire, one side just loses slowly. Sessions become days, days become matches and matches become series.

So it was with interest that I saw Australia sink to their first series whitewash since 1982 (two Tests barely counts) and India win for the first time in Bangalore since beating New Zealand in 1995. Ricky Ponting now still hasn’t won a Test match on Indian soil, and most likely never will. Poor, poor guy. It isn’t enough he is one of the only Australian captains to have lost two Ashes series in England on the trot.

The cricket world, from being a unipolar world where Steve Waugh’s Australians kicked the crap out of whoever got in their way, has now diffused into a multipolar one, where power rests in several places. Another characteristic of a multipolar world, if political science is to be believed, is that the world is more liable to change and more unstable than its predecessors.

India can rightfully claim to be one of them, if not the leading nation. Their major problem is that their great middle order is at the end of its lifespan, and come the conclusion of the 2011 World Cup, the likes of Tendulkar, Dravid and the outstanding and highly under-rated VVS Laxman will become cricket folklore. Still, right now, India are a very mean outfit. Their final Test will be to see if they can come to South Africa and walk away with a series victory, something this particular generation of Indian players has always found extremely difficult to do.

England are also a formidable team, as their gritty 1-1 draw in SA last summer proved. Still, though theirs is a lot of steel in the Three Lions, their middle order also smells of softness if the key men of Strauss, Pietersen and Collingwood are tamed. If I were a betting man, I would put money on the English to win at least a Test this time round in Australia. The Ashes, while its importance is completely blown out of proportion, is tough cricket but I still expect Australia to be motivated by revenge. Their lack of a quality spinner (sorry Nathan) and a captain who knows how best to utilise what spinner they do have, is a weakness. But the rest of their outfit, if they can tame the very impressive and highly skilled Graeme Swann, won’t be surprised by their attack. Steve Finn is going to find that out the hard way.

That leaves South Africa, who in terms of the age and skill level of their team, are as equally well-positioned as their rivals. The lack of a quality spinner is a problem, like the political crisis in the Middle East, which seems to have no end. Also, an entrenched and experienced opening partner for Graeme Smith is something Alviro Petersen will want to make a thing of the past. Still, as they proved in 2008, they can beat anyone anywhere and if it weren’t for a pitch being doctored to suit their Indian hosts on their last tour, they would’ve walked away with the spoils as they did in Australia (one of the great series) and England.

Mind you, they have a tricky series in the UAE against Pakistan to content with, and who knows what might happen there (some bookmakers have known in advance in the past). Hopefully the stink from No-ball Gate will be so rancorous that it ensures a good clean series. If you have your doubts, I don’t blame you, but let us hope.

In respect to New Zealand, Pakistan, the West Indies and Bangladesh, they have proven that in comparison to the heavy-weights above them, they rank very much in the middle-weight division. If only Daniel Vettori, one of my favourite players, was a South African. Now that would be a cricket team.

It’s a brave new world, and Australia’s fall from superpower to regional power had been expected. Still, nobody was really sure if it was for real, such was the dominance of Waugh’s side. Now, no one is mistaken and there is going to be some blood on the floor before the real champion emerges.

How long will that take? Who knows, but in the meantime, there has never been a better time to sit back, sip your beer, get sunburnt (or not … sunscreen companies love cricket fans) and watch Test cricket.