Balance of forces: World Cup predictions (Come on you Black Stars!)

There is not much point in having a World Cup blog on such a respectable website if you are not going to take the opportunity to masquerade as an expert football analyst. By profession I am a lawyer, by instinct a sports commentator. And having attended around 300 Arsenal games in my life so far I must know what I am talking about when it comes to football. So here goes. Applying my usual vectors of power and balance of balance of forces, the starting point is to recognise that this is almost certainly the most egalitarian group of finalists ever.

Unlike the host nation, there are no great fault-lines of class and socioeconomic inequality. New Zealand and North Korea will probably struggle. But in most of the groups all four teams could easily get through to the last 16. The obvious prediction is that England and Brazil will context one semifinal, and Argentina and Spain the other, with the latter beating the winner of the former tie, in the final. But only the mind of dullard would present such a trite offering to his readers. And this not the month to be dull. And in any case football is never so obliging. Thank God.

Within the 48 group games there are some pivotal nuggets that must be identified and then watched like a hawk. Having watched South Korea out-pace a sluggish Greece yesterday, it became clear, for example, that their game against Argentina on Thursday is a potential tournament-changer.

It is unlikely, given the all-round class of the Argentines, but possible, given the panache of the South Koreans. If so, it would throw Argentina across from one corner of the draw to another — that of England (and France). It would set in motion the following: instead of Argentina coming up against Germany in the Cape Town quarterfinal on July 3 — which would be the game of the tournament — they would get the opportunity to knock out a lame France and an England team born to disappoint in the quarters, before meeting Brazil in a mouth-watering semi in Cape Town on July 6.

The other potential pivots are Ivory Coast’s games against Portugal and Brazil, and Portugal’s game against Brazil in the group-of-death; Mexico’s against France in Group A, and France’s against SA. France are there for the taking, I am sure of that. Brazil lack their old aura and could get squeezed into second place by Portugal and/or the Ivorians — which would send them across the draw to face Spain in the last group 16 game (whichever combination it is — Spain versus Brazil, Portugal or Ivory Coast it will be a compelling encounter in Cape Town).

USA conjured up half an upset against England on Saturday night and it is entirely possible that they will score more goals against Algeria and Slovenia than England will, and thus top Group C. I don’t think USA are as good as some of the analysts have been saying, but they are dogged and disciplined and maybe a little lucky, so I could end up in Rustenburg on June 26 watching my team — the Black Stars of Ghana — against USA rather than England, who would then meet their Waterloo against the fleet-of-foot Germans a day later in Bloemfontein.

In the other groups, surprises are less likely: Germany, Holland, Italy and Spain will prevail without too much fuss and bother.

But, combining head and heart, I think South Korea won’t quite do enough against Argentina, Germany will beat Argentina 3-2, and then face Spain or Italy in the semi, when experience will trump youth. Holland will surprise a torpid Brazil, wreaking revenge for the anguish of 1998, but lose to the Italians or Spanish.

And yet. Never trust the Dutch when it comes to World Cups. I will believe their success when I see it. So the alternative scenario presents itself: Brazil, having come second in their group will summon fresh inspiration and topple the Spanish at Greenpoint on the 29^th June, vanquish the Italians, but then lose to Germany or Argentina in the Durban semi. Meanwhile, the Ivory Coast, intoxicated by conquering the group of death will march on imperious through Round 16 to face, and defeat, a complacent yet cantankerous Dutch side, to then meet Ghana in the dream all-Africa semifinal. How good would that be? Sweet as a nut.

But now the heart is ruling the head, perhaps. So I reserve the right to revise these predictions in a week, after the first round of group games. Said like a good lawyer.