The smart money is on Australia for 2011

The rugby world is slowly edging to its Holy Grail, one which only appears every four years. Plans are concocted, armies assembled and opponents vanquished in the four-year dash for the Rugby World Cup, a tournament which forms the primordial soup of international rugby. The Tri-Nations, Six Nations, Super 12/14/15 and Heineken Cup are all popular competitions which keep us entertained for the most part, but in comparison to the Webb Ellis Trophy, everything else becomes trophies of the kiddies table. Only one side has the right to be called world champions, and even when they are playing like a snail crawling to a salt shaker, they are still world champions until someone else says otherwise … literally.

South Africa have never been the best of reigning champions, as first the class of 1995 and now the class 2007 weren’t exactly followed by four stellar years of success. The All Blacks beat everyone, and I mean everyone (with the odd exception here and there) for four years straight but for one month every four years they suffer rugby’s equivalent of a psychological breakdown. They are the best rugby team on the planet, and I doubt many disagree. However, like the Proteas, they just can’t seem to separate the Jackal from their Hyde and emerge in the form that they really want to take when the loser of the match goes home. They are led by a coach and captain who have demons of their own to vanquish, which either will motivate them or distract them from their goals.

Regardless of the All Blacks’ fate, the fact that Graham Henry stayed in charge and denied his heir apparent, Robbie Deans, the chance to take over, will only be seen in its true context come the middle of October next year.

Right now, with the way they are playing, New Zealand are rightly favourites. But a spinoff of that decision by their union was that Deans went across the sea to Australia. Initially, the side struggled as Deans went about creating a side in his own image, being that of the Crusaders: total rugby. Size, pace and skill all concocted into a lethal cocktail that just might reach its intense peak in the Land of the Long White Cloud.

South Africa, though equipped with a squad capable of winning the trophy again, appear little advanced from Jake White’s 2007 template. All that has happened now is that with new ideas came new confusion. Peter de Villiers was keen to see South Africa run the ball more initially, but ultimately he fell victim to the pragmatism that forms the basis of the oval ball game in South Africa.

We bemoan the difference in skill between players from South Africa versus those from Australia and New Zealand when it comes to using the ball in hand. Australian players are highly skilled footballers because they are raised in an environment where rugby union co-exists with its bastard cousin rugby league and Aussie Rules, which require dynamic handling as a prerequisite. These skills trickle across and are absorbed by the sporting spectrum.

South Africans would rather keep the ball tight since that is what our rugby culture traditionally knows best. Physical domination and depriving opposition backs of the ball is what South African rugby is all about. The most consistent eras of Springbok dominance in the professional era have been built upon a tight defence, physical domination at the set piece and forcing the opposition into making mistakes. Very rarely do the Springboks run a side to pieces, and though there are exceptions such as Pretoria 1998 and Johannesburg 2008, South Africa slowly turn their opponents to dust when operating at peak levels.

New Zealand on the other hand seems to be at one with the game, or more to the point, the guardians of the soul and nature of rugby football. They play the game in a way that others want to emulate and measure themselves by.

What Deans has done is gather the diamonds of Australia’s rugby union pool and polished them, regardless of age. James O’ Connor, Kurtley Beale, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, David Pocock and James Slipper are all under the age of 24 but already have 20 or 30 Tests under their belt. Combined with men such as Matt Giteau, Rocky Elsom, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Stirling Mortlock, Nathan Sharpe and Benn Robinson, you have the makings of a side that can run an opponent to pieces.

The pack is where Australia have always struggled, but with an injury-free squad list to pick from, the situation changes slightly. Right now Mortlock, locks James Horwill and Mark Chisholm, back-rowers Wycliff Palu and Stephen Hoiles, hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau and backs Rob Horne, Digby Ioane, Will Chambers and Cameron Shepherd are all injured. If fully fit, Australia’s pack would look far better at scrum time, especially if Stephen Moore starts since he is Australia’s best scrumming hooker.

If I was a betting man I would put my money on Australia. Their forwards might say it now, but with so much potential located in a backline, combined with Professor Dean’s likely master plan, watch out for the Wallabies as the bolters to take Rugby World Cup 2011 by storm.