A deal before summer?

Mugabe’s anti-imperialist rhetoric increased after his return from the World Food Summit, but by and large it was nothing more than getting himself into a bargaining position as he tries to cut a deal with Washington and London that will allow him to hold onto power. Nothing is being said about the frantic deal-making in the background. South African President Thabo Mbeki and former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan are said to be the main power brokers in an attempt to create a Government of National Unity for Zimbabweans. Is it likely that the two parties, now sworn enemies of each other, would agree to join hands in a government of unity deal? If so, what are the key indicators of such a probability?

It is estimated that 25 000 people have been displaced since the elections in March, more than 65 are thought to have been killed, 200 are believed missing and well over 3000 people have been treated in hospital as a result of the violence. Unemployment is running at 80% or above, while inflation has reached 1.7million % by April already. A third of the population has fled the country in search of work and many travel across borders to buy food in neighbouring countries. The depth of the political and economic crisis is such that even the most hardline supporters of Mugabe must have begun to doubt their ability to deliver victory for Mugabe.

There is, however, a clique of the old guard that would be prepared to ditch Mugabe. The man has become a liability and hampers their ability to act as the local representatives of international capital. True, there are significant sections of the political elite forming a laager around Mugabe. Their association with and support for Mugabe has allowed them to enrich themselves fabulously through the years. Leading military figures profited from the invasion of the DRC, having seized logging and mineral rights, and the redistribution of white-owned farms benefited those close to Mugabe. They know the life of luxury and privilege and they want to keep it this way.

The collective of interest formed around Tsvangirai simply want their share of power and the wealth that goes with it. Having broken with Mugabe a while ago, they see him as out of step with global financial interests, wanting to make use of that country’s resources. Their time has arrived, they believe. This is their hour, and they are more aware of it with every day that goes by without them benefiting from potential profits to be gained from Zimbabwe’s farmlands and mineral resources.

There are two reasons why these two political elites would be willing to enter into a power sharing arrangement. Firstly, there is their common insatiable appetite for power and privilege. They would be willing to hammer their swords into ploughshares if the returns are great enough. The second reason provides the key to the frantic background activity for a government of national unity: Their common fear for the urban working class and rural poor. If there is one thing the election has revealed to both parties, it is this sector’s anger and hostility towards the Mugabe regime. While Morgan Tsvangarai is the undoubted beneficiary of this anger at present, it will not be long before his economic programme will be unwelcome once its implications are understood by Zimbabweans.

They’re working on a deal for Zimbabwe. Will this be Zimbabwe’s summer of reprieve?