An analysis of the names on the lips of the chattering elite who inhabit Web 2.0, or at least the world of blogs, Facebook and user-generated content, shows that it is really a one-horse race: Jacob Zuma versus not Jacob Zuma.
Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa barely feature in the succession debate in blog content. While most of the Zuma commentary and activity is negative, in the absence of a viable alternative, the cliché about any publicity being good publicity applies with a vengeance here.
Part of the problem, as revealed in Web 2.0, is that the race is not between Zuma and Ramaphosa or Sexwale, as media commentators fondly believe, but between Zuma and the incumbent, President Thabo Mbeki. In Web 2.0, Zuma is firmly positioned as the alternative to Mbeki, while the latter represents a front for the not-Jacob Zuma campaign. The problem, for Mbeki, is that no one wants to vote for a front, and his (usually negative) presence in Web 2.0 is simply too strong to allow the likes of Sexwale and Ramaphosa to emerge from the shadows.
Have a look at this very basic analysis, called a BuzzGraph, generated from blog posts linked to Amatomu. A BuzzGraph lets you pick up to five keywords to see a stacked graph comparing each term by the number of times they have been mentioned on the South African blogosphere over the past 30 days. Selecting the four names mentioned above, the BuzzGraph barely registers Sexwale or Ramaphosa, aside from the few days on which they staked a “buzz claim” largely through their business moves, rather than political breakthroughs:
Technorati, which tracks blogs globally, confirms these trends. A search on “Thabo Mbeki” delivers 3 659 mentions, “Jacob Zuma” gets 729, “Tokyo Sexwale” 194 and “Cyril Ramaphosa” a mere 85. It’s not only the blogs: conventional media reflect the same trend. A search on the four names in Google News, which draws both on the world’s mainstream and its alternative media, reflects almost precisely the same trend.
Based on the blogs, right now, Zuma is the only logical successor to Mbeki. However, Mbeki’s profile is so much stronger than Zuma’s that the incumbent may well feel that he is his own logical successor. In other words, that the logical choice for not-Jacob Zuma is the president himself.
Now how about Facebook, that barometer of affection among the connected youth in South Africa?
In politics, it is more a barometer of disaffection, or at least dislike, particularly when bogus profiles and hate or support groups are established. Thabo Mbeki has no less than 24 Facebook profiles, while Jacob Zuma has seven, which reveals that Mbeki may be disliked even more than Zuma in this demographic grouping. On the other hand, there are only two Mbeki groups on Facebook, while there are 25 for Zuma — most of them opposing or attacking the politicians. Can’t these kids make up their minds?
At the same time, there are 11 Sexwale groups on Facebook, and two Ramaphosa groups — and almost all of these support their aspirations for the presidency. But no one has bothered to create Sexwale or Ramaphosa profiles. This may count in their favour, but may also reveal that no one cares enough.
Hey, if all the world’s political analysts can’t figure out how this will play out, did you really expect Web 2.0 to get it right?
Analyse the data below and see what you come up with:
Thabo Mbeki
Google search: 1 430 000
Google News search: 4 222
Facebook profiles: 24
Facebook groups: 2
Technorati blog posts: 3 659
Jacob Zuma
Google search: 268 000
Google News search: 668
Facebook profiles: 7
Facebook groups: 25
Technorati blog posts: 729
Tokyo Sexwale
Google search: 55 000
Google News search: 104
Facebook profiles: 0
Facebook groups: 11 (for pres)
Technorati blog posts: 194
Cyril Ramaphosa
Google search: 68 800
Google News search: 43
Facebook profiles: 0
Facebook groups: 2
Technorati blog posts: 85
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