ANC split: good for what?

Never mind that no one seems to have the faintest idea about what exactly is going on in our country over the past few weeks, but apparently all of this serious pushing, pulling, shoving and other such forced removals, is good for our democracy.

I don’t know.

Perhaps too much is happening too fast for anyone except those who conscientiously did their Politics 101 homework, to actually track, analyse and fathom the next bend in this roller coaster ride the country seems to be on at the moment.

But even the experts are pulling their punches.

One moment Thabo Mbeki is told to walk the plank, the next moment Trevor Manual calls the market’s bluff and causes pandemonium by resigning his post momentarily (when apparently there was no need to do so). Then almost half a dozen ministers resign out of disgust, but not Manto. She was obviously too busy farming to react initially, but is ultimately moved to tears with news of Mbeki’s eviction, but she, unlike other Mbeki cheerleaders, recovers fast and merrily moves into President Kgalema Mothlanthe’s office. Then rumours emerge that Mothlanthe might never pass on the mantle to Zuma post 2009 elections (when the ANC wins). This rumour doesn’t really ruffle feathers since Mothlanthe is seen as an olive branch, all seemed well and every one sighed in relief. But then Tutu claims he is hurt by the vicious unraveling of the ANC and suggests he wouldn’t want to exercise his vote next year if the current political environment remained. Suddenly they become “they” when sharp tongued Terror Lekota decides that the ANC is not really the same ANC that facilitated his well paid salary over the past decade and then he runs over to 702 to announce the possible formation of a new party. No one knows how Allan Boesak got involved at this point, but he apparently got frazzled with the church for being homophobic (did he just become aware of this now?) and also entered the fray.

With all these manic developments out of a Spielberg/Scorsese/Bruckheimer co-production, something tells me we ought to reserve our comment for after the 2009 elections, the hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2010 and the state of the nation in 2011 (when the street children come back from hibernation in Lesotho) to actually ascertain if this tumultuous period actually strengthened or played a key part in the disintegration of our democratic country.

Of course, by 2012, we could be in the midst of a civil war, be taken over by pirates or perhaps be the most stable port in a global storm caused by ongoing financial crisis and the crash of the dollar, but this is yet to be seen.

Instead, while this vast web of a mess continues to confuse the bejesus out of us every time we turn on the news, or listen to the radio or even eavesdrop on passing shoppers in the local supermarket, for now there remain some indisputable verities.

Firstly, election time beckons. Voter registration opens in early November and the ANC continues to hit the headlines everyday without fail (except when Bafana beat Malawi) and this serves to monopolise the political imagination of ordinary South Africans used to voting only for the ANC. As the saying goes, “even bad publicity is good publicity”, and the ANC (a) and the ANC (b) are still the ANC. Sorry, Helen, you are not going to share in the spoils.

Secondly, all the drama has diverted debate from Zuma’s legitimacy as “a future president with corruption charges still hanging” from the shower head, to the internal struggles of the ANC. Zuma has an chance to emerge an even bigger hero, a larger than life Madiba-type legend if he is able to manage this crisis and find an amicable solution. Either way, the focus has drifted from dodgy Zuma to other seemingly more important priorities.

Thirdly, service delivery and local governance over the next six months is set to plummet to all time lows as attention moves to resolving these internal seismic events and the garnering of votes across the country. That anyone in government is actually doing any of their mandated work at the moment as opposed to shifting loyalties to enhance their career options, is anyone’s guess.

And fourthly and, probably most crucially, what on earth will this second coming of the ANC (b) offer which will be different from the ANC (a) and benefit the lives of ordinary South Africans? This is the Mbeki contingent, upset that Mbeki was humiliated. If their concern was for the benefit of the country, where were they during all these years when Mbeki was running around trying to save the world when standards of governance was consistently plummeting this side of the border? Perhaps launching a support group would make more sense than a political party.

And again that genius Julius Malema and his boys have something fascinating to add to the ruckus.

The rebels (ie. Lekota and the Mbeki flag-flying brigade) threatening to destabilise the existing ANC (a) could only be right wing forces. Consider who is left and you will know what I mean.