Conspiracy theories and the Zuma presidency

My brain is simplistic enough to believe that there can only be two plausible truths here

Mbeki is indeed behind the plot to frame Zuma.

Mbeki framing Zuma is a conspiracy theory which is the brainchild of people who think JZ is the Second Coming.

Thought Leader readers are a sophisticated bunch with an above–average IQ. So I have no doubt that they could come up with another 27 possible explanations for the soap opera that has been playing itself out since 2001. My retort would be to snort and insist that I’m right and that they are a bunch of smarty–pants spindoctors.

Whether people believe that Zuma is the victim of an elaborate graft job or that his hand has cookie crumbs stuck to it is usually a function of cognitive dissonance. That means people believe only that which supports what they already believed about him anyway. People who think Zuma is a sleazy, illiterate weasel being used by commies to turn South Africa into a latter day version of Stalin’s Russia, tend to believe that he is guilty of the crimes he’s been accused of. They also happen to believe that he has an anagram that, rearranged spells ‘triple six’ on his member. They may even believe that he is generally guilty of every unsolved crime from Jimmy Hoffa’s disappearance to the 2004 tsunami.

Needless to say, people in the other corner believe Zuma is innocent of everything he’s been accused of and may even credit him with personally keeping global warming in check by deflecting the sun’s ultra–violet rays off his impressive chrome dome.

But I also think that people form their opinions on this matter based on another factor — their conspiracy theory acceptance index or BAI (bullshit acceptance index). One of my personality defects, of course, is that I do not care enough about such matters to have a strong opinion either way. My mind is too busy with more pertinent matters such as formulating my opinions on whether toilet rolls should be unwound clockwise or anti-clockwise. (For the record, clockwise rolling is a throwback to our Neanderthal days when we didn’t have opposable thumbs.)

But I digress. My point here is that people have a natural propensity to believe or not believe conspiracy theories. Genetics or socialization? Your guess is as good as mine -– we’ll leave the professional psychology geeks to continue the street battle. Whatever the real reason, people tend to either generally accept or reject conspiracy theories.

My learned readers will probably correct me and point out that what I’m talking about would be more accurately termed levels of skepticism etc. You know the drill by now -– I won’t be particularly impressed by big pseudo–philosophical terms. My ignorance is unshakeable.

My BAI scale has a range between minus 10 and 10. People who score ten on the scale are the type of people who believe that the US invasion of Iraq is a massive Bush–sponsored Hollywood production to gain America’s citizens’ trust in their government after 9/11. People who score minus ten on the scale are people who believe that the story about a dude who caught waves off the Sea of Galilee coast without a surfboard, armed only with an advanced beard, is a literal story.

One of my favourite pastimes is trying to figure out how people score on the BAI scale. I think I have detected some patterns. As a general rule, I have discovered that males tend to score higher on the BAI scale than females i.e. more likely to believe conspiracy theories. Naturally conservative people tend to score very low on the scale versus their more liberal counterparts. Left–brained people tend to score higher than right–brained people. One’s BAI score tends to decrease with age i.e. the older people get, the more they reject conspiracy theories.

I must confess that I score quite highly on the BAI scale –- maybe as high as five or six. I do not remember coming across a conspiracy theory that I dismissed offhand, however ludicrous at face value. As a matter of fact, the more fantastic the conspiracy theory, the more likely I am to want to know more. It gives me great comfort to believe that things are not what they seem. I think it has to do with the fact that I refuse to believe that life could possibly be really this mundane. My brain refuses to accept that the world’s most powerful nation is led by an obtuse, born–again simpleton with a penchant for starting wars of retribution (‘that man tried to kill my daddy’). My brain says there’s more to it than meets the eye and that he’s part of a clandestine cabal of evil, oil–thirsty men. For the record, I never mentioned the Bilderberg group. That was all in your own mind.

But back to our own yard. Based on my observations, I think that Zuma’s ascendancy to the presidency depends heavily on his appreciation for the BAI scale. He needs to impress upon his legal counsel the importance of pulling all the stops to influence the choice of judge who will preside over his corruption trial. If I was heading that legal team, I’d draw up a list of all possible judges for that case and rate them according to their enjoyment of The X–files. That’s right; enjoyment of The X–files is a rapid BAI test.

Then Zuma’s legal team needs to make a pre–emptive strike by discrediting all candidates scoring less than, say five, on the scale. First prize would probably be someone who believes that Eskom’s Jacob Maroga is a member of a secret Vatican–sponsored sect that is behind the recent load shedding so they can work on turning us all into Pope–worshipping zombies in the dark. That’s the kind of guy you want sitting on that bench with gavel in hand. And no, I’m not being sexist when I say ‘guy’. I thought we already covered that –- women are less likely to believe in conspiracy theories.

Anyone with an average ability to read between the lines can see where this is going. 2009 is an election year. After The X–files judge throws out the case, JZ has another hurdle. Survey after survey has proved that there are a lot of people who think hedunnit. They are unlikely to be impressed by the finding of a judge who may/may not be humming the theme to The X–files while he passes judgment. That wouldn’t be cool. I think it’s only a matter of time before someone recognizes that I’m the best man for the job of JZ’s campaign manager. Based on my analysis, these are the groups that this election campaign needs to focus on:

Females

ZCC members, Seventh Day Adventists and Jehovah’s Witnesses

Senior citizens

If these groupings’ minds cannot be swayed, then more ‘persuasive’ methods would have to be employed. I’m thinking about ensuring that Election Day coincides with that lunar cycle–determined weekend at Moria, a 60%–off–everything nationwide shoe sale and discounted Viagra redeemable by using Shoprite coupons. This would probably distract these unwanted hordes long enough. I think it’s abundantly clear that I’ve given this a lot of thought and am thus quite capable of doing the job.

But more importantly, is there a correlation between your score on the BAI scale and whether you believe Msholozi is innocent or not? A number ranging between minus ten and ten and a ‘Yes/No’ will suffice as a comment on this one.