There is no doubt that the whole of New Zealand is praying twice a day, if not more, that their All Blacks finally overcome the hurdle of winning their second RWC and matching up with their Sanzar partners. Those that can’t pray are having dreams about the cup coming back to New Zealand.
I can assure you, having been in New Zealand, that if you think South Africans are passionate about sport, the New Zealanders are five times more obsessed with the All Blacks. There is only one sport in the land of the long white cloud — rugby! The success or failure of this team affects every corner and function of the country. In the past the All Blacks have lost and been removed from the tournament, much to the shock and horror of the rugby world, and now the tournament is in their back yard with the 2011 Tri-Nations having been there for the All Blacks to lose … and they did. They lost two Tests in a row, one with their second string line-up to the Boks and one with the best they have to the Wallabies.
Can the All Blacks overcome the bogey of failing at RWCs? This I believe is more the main question of this RWC than who is going to win it. The Cup of Dreams, which this is for New Zealand, is a few games away and as I have stated before, I do believe the team and country deserve it. But will they get it? The team that did duty against a hapless and very poor France was okay I thought. It had good intensity and pace. But the Wallabies and Boks can and will probably pick off the weaknesses I saw. I found the All Blacks to be very one-dimensional in attack against the French, either playing off Dan Carter on the inside or skipping to an outside channel two runner in Ma’a Nonu. Again, I say they do have pace and I believe in Israel Dagg they have found their first choice fullback.
I have made known this opinion of mine many a time — the All Blacks are beatable and we have seen it in 2011 and prior. I believe that at the breakdown on attack you execute a good pick and drive down the middle strategy or a forward runner strictly in channel one and you will penetrate. You cannot attack them wide until beyond phase five. This being said, the teams must maintain possession of their own ball. I believe that in man-on-man sliding defence, the absolute basics are very adequate to starve the All Blacks of any penetration. They lack imagination on attack and quite frankly have for a long time.
so, what am I saying? I believe the Boks will beat the All Blacks if we get the semi-final all have predicted. I say this purely based on the pressure of expectation, which, if measured on the Richter scale, would be a 10 — I kid you not. There will be more pressure in the semi-final than in the final and I believe the Boks will have less to lose. And as they are playing right now — with key playmakers starting to look the part again — they could very well take much glory in ousting the hosts and relegating them to eternal world cup failures. This will not impact on my respect for what I believe is the greatest rugby nation on the planet, it will just mean that in knock-out rugby, they just can’t do it.
Will this Cup of Dreams make its new home at the New Zealand Rugby Union till Japan 2015? I am putting it out there that I believe it won’t. Not because they’re not good enough but because of the pressure of expectation.
Time will tell.
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