Super 14: Are we looking at the semifinalists?

Now the drama starts to increase after 23% of the competition has passed us by. All visiting teams won their matches except for the Cheetahs.

The top three — the Bulls, Waratahs and Sharks — have won all three of their games and the last 3 — the Chief, Highlanders and Cheetahs — have lost all three of their games.

Incredibly South African teams are 1 and 3, namely the Bulls and Sharks, with the Sharks the only team of the Super 14 not to have scored a bonus point after 240 minutes.

Consider also the huge chasm between the Bulls with 14 points and the Cheetahs with 2 at the bottom of the log. Regrettably the Cheetahs are playing to virtually empty stadiums at all of their 3 games and you can see the despondency and desperation on the players’ faces, even as they run onto the field. They look beaten even before kick-off. The heat in Brisbane must have also been a contributing factor. Still, why do the host unions not donate the tickets to their schools and universities to fill the stadia? It would be much better to be playing in front of a full stadium.

Australia is right up there with the Waratahs and the Force at 2 and 4 respectively and New Zealand are 5 and 6 on the log with the Blues and Hurricanes. John Mitchell has drilled his Western Force and gone from zero to hero in 3 seasons. You have to love the style that exudes from the Sharks, Waratahs, Blues and Force. Most of their players offload effectively in a tackle that commits two of the opposition, resulting in spectacular tries starting from their own 25.

Last year at this stage, after 3 weeks, it was the Blues, Crusaders, Sharks and Waratahs. The Crusaders, Waratahs, Sharks and Hurricanes finished as the top 4 after 14 weeks, so expect to see 3 out of the Bulls, Sharks, Waratahs and Force in the semifinals.

Suddenly, actually not so suddenly, these early rounds are when the teams entrench themselves at the top and gain confidence with each successive match, while all the other 10 teams are left floundering. The bonus points continue to be key and the Sharks have yet to tap this resource to ensure a place in the semifinals.

Look at the Crusaders’ pain. The Crusaders have felt the conspicuous loss of Dan Carter and especially the 10 minutes that McCaw was binned against the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes handed defending champions Crusaders their second consecutive defeat with a 30-24 win in Christchurch to send the seven-time champions tumbling to eighth place. That is an eye-opener and shows the vulnerability of a team because before the competition they were never viewed as vulnerable but as the defending champions without a few key players.

So the pivots, or the flyhalfs become THE men in the competition right now to watch.

Morne Steyn of the Bulls, Kurtley Beale of the Waratahs, Ruan Pienaar of the Sharks and Matt Giteau of the Force all masterminded their teams’ victories this past weekend with their deft kicking. Keep an eye on these four as they take their team through to the semifinals of the Super 14, or not. The games ahead will centre on how these four gain metres for their team and how their chip-kicks set up the mid-field and wings for tries.

In fact it was Piri Weepu, heir apparent to the All Blacks’ flyhalf role when he engineered the Hurricanes to an away win over the Crusaders, who fought back from 30-12 down with two tries. This means the Hurricanes could also become contenders.

Talking of flyhalfs, it is reported that with Giteau going to the Waratahs in 2010, Peter Grant of the Stormers could go to the Force as his folks are in Perth already.

The landscape of rugby is about to change. Now I am off to pen something about the Sanzar meeting in Dubai on March 4.

Super 15 in 2010 — to be or not to be.

Friday March 6 Chiefs vs Force (Hamilton)
Friday March 6 Waratahs vs Reds (Sydney)
Saturday March 7 Hurricanes vs Cheetahs (New Plymouth)
Saturday March 7 Blues vs Sharks (Auckland)
Saturday March 7 Highlanders vs Crusaders (Dunedin)
Saturday March 7 Bulls vs Stormers (Pretoria)

Lions and Brumbies have a bye