By Sam Bradley
Economists have noticed a funny phenomenon. As countries change from developing to developed, so the demographics of the country also change. Developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have high fertility rates and high infant mortality rates. Lots of children are born, but many die at a young age. Conversely, developed countries in Europe and North America have lower birth rates and higher life expectancies.
Economists have found that as countries change, mortality rates drop before fertility rates decline. The lag between the two rates is estimated to be 20 years. This explains why, as more countries have transitioned into developed countries over the last 50 years, the world’s population has jumped from about three billion to almost seven billion people. It also helps explain why the average age of many countries has been steadily dropping, resulting in what has been termed a “youth bulge” in population pyramids.
Whether this youth bulge is a problem or a solution is not yet clear. It has traditionally been viewed by experts as a problem. Increased population numbers place more pressure on food and wages. The result is a worsening of the level of poverty. To South Africans living in a country struggling with a 25% unemployment rate, low levels of education, crime and poverty, this simply sounds like more bad news.
South Africa is in a unique political situation. Our Gini coefficient is one of the highest in the world. This means there is a large difference between the “haves” and “have-nots”. The end of apartheid brought about high expectations of equality, freedom, health and wealth. While we have come a long way in 17 years of democracy, the road ahead is long. Development has not been as quick as people would like. This has led to a lot of anger and frustration, and instances of inefficiencies, non-delivery of services and corruption and fraud by politicians have only antagonised the current situation. The question facing us as the youth of today is: do we want to be part of the problem, or part of the solution?
The current situation is not a good one. Nearly every day the newspapers tell of more disgruntled youth upset with the country’s problems. Their anger is expressed through striking, rioting and general chaos. How often do we hear of youths disillusioned with their employment prospects (or lack thereof) and turning instead to crime? Or how often do we hear about young professionals having a moan about South Africa, packing up their bags and heading off to so-called greener pastures abroad? If these trends continue, it’s clear that the youth will be part of the problem, not the answer.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Recently, youth around the world have been standing tall. The peaceful revolution in Egypt was described by United States President Barack Obama as a “moral force that bent the arc of history toward justice once more”.
A study done by economists at Harvard have also suggested that youth may be more solution than problem. Their paper concluded that “[o]ur results suggest that the demographic transition can act both as a catalyst and as an accelerator mechanism … .”
If the youth of South Africa are going to be a “catalyst” and “accelerator mechanism” in the future, it will probably have to do so without the help of the government. The National Youth Development Agency was established by the government with the aim of “creating and promoting coordination in youth development matters”.
However it was heavily criticised recently by the ANC Youth League in a document titled Youth Development for Economic Freedom in our Lifetime because of its lack of tangible results.
Despite the lack of support, there is still progress. Reading the Mail & Guardian’s Top 200 young South Africans of 2011 cannot help but leave one feeling more positive about the younger generation. There are also many organisations and conferences aiming to unite, train and develop the future young leaders of tomorrow — there would be too many to name each one individually, but if you were to Google Brightest Young Minds or One Young World, you would be amazed at some of outreach projects being undertaken by resourceful young people determined to make a difference.
In conclusion I would suggest that our youth bulge is neither a problem nor a solution. It’s an opportunity. Whether it’s taken is our choice. That the challenge facing our generation is big, steep and, tough is in no doubt. But as the saying goes, “calm waters never made an able sailor”.
Sam Bradley is currently doing his articles at Deloitte in Durban, and he works part time as a tour guide for a Christian travel company in Zimbabwe. His hobbies include scuba diving, running and writing.
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