Michael Trapido
Michael Trapido

Zimbabwe elections: A conspiracy theory

While Egypt became the first example of expedience over democracy being openly accepted, if not actively promoted, by Western democracies it is going to find its match in Zimbabwe during the course of this week albeit without the fanfare and publicity that is occasioned by a military coup.

The outcome, in my most humble opinion, is that Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC will be the next government of our northern neighbours and that this has been worked on by not only the Southern African Development Community states and South Africa in particular but even certain factions within the Zanu-PF including President Robert Mugabe.

Let’s turn the clock back to the referendum on a new constitution in 2000 wherein the previously invincible Zanu-PF got handed its head by a voting public that was tired of empty promises and pre-election hand-outs invariably followed by wholesale corruption and nepotism.

Instead of reading the writing on the wall and steering the party back towards the centre, Zanu-PF went ahead with its unworkable timetable, including land seizures, which turned the bread basket of Africa into the begging-bowl state.

As a result Zanu-PF is only able to retain power by immense brutality and vote-rigging as it stole the elections in 2002 and 2008.

Of course the fact that the Zanu-PF regime had carried out mass murder, notably in Matabeleland, where an estimated 20 000 were slaughtered, meant that the reprisals were on the cards as soon as they lost power.

In 2008 as an act of desperation Mugabe clung to power and a power-sharing arrangement was reached.

In hindsight this was a shrewd move by all for the following reasons :

The military, no doubt severely compromised by their role in atrocities, had vowed that they would never serve Tsvangirai. This is fascinating in itself because the military in most countries owe allegiance to the state, the people, rather than individuals or parties. The power sharing has allowed the military and the prime minister to form a bond.

At the same time Mugabe, contemplating a time when he would step down, became aware of just how treacherous the various factions within the Zanu-PF had become. His departure would not usher in a new more vibrant party but rather Zanu-PF would tear itself apart as vested interests went head-to-head.

On eNCA this morning details emerged of very prominently placed blogger/s, believed to be within the Zanu-PF hierarchy, who are advising the public on the party’s wholesale corruption. This would never have seen light of day five years ago — the informer/s would have been found and executed.

In my humble opinion Mugabe has realised that if the party — which he dedicated his life to build — is not taken into opposition they will not only lose the election and fragment but in addition face major retribution in the years ahead.

The fact that the president has indicated that he will accept the result is an indication that the talking behind closed doors has finally settled all the outstanding issues and Zimbabwe is finally set to move forward.

No doubt there will be talk of vote rigging and the usual rhetoric over the next few days but the people’s choice Tsvangirai will finally emerge as the victor.

If this is right the economic benefit to SADC and South Africa in particular will be enormous as many of the hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans in exile begin returning home

No doubt the victory owes its beginnings to the work done in the ruins of Zimbabwe’s last election and demonstrates that thinking men and women will always find a solution if their hearts are in the right place.

Tags: , , , ,

  • Making sense of #ThisFlag, Zimbabwean dissent and South African solidarity
  • Mugabe’s only path to true statesmanship is his death
  • Zimbabwe: The triumph of hope over experience
  • Under fire SADC media must build alliances with citizens
    • Sterling Ferguson

      @Michael. are you serious when you wrote this?

    • http://maravi.blogspot.com/ MrK

      ” The outcome, in my most humble opinion, is that Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC will be the next government of our northern neighbours and that this has been worked on by not only the Southern African Development Community states and South Africa in particular but even certain factions within the Zanu-PF including President Robert Mugabe. ”

      Why anyone would think that a party that has Matabaleland provinces at their heartland, when 80% of the population of Zimbabwe is Shona has a chance of coming to power without deception or manipulation is beyond me.

      This is not tribalism, just global political principle. Most people will not vote someone of a minority region/tribe/religion into power, because they are sure to hoard national resources for the development of their own part of the country. (Apartheid being only one case in point.)

      The MDC is a coalition between Rhodesian Front elements who want to see their huge colonial estates returned to them, the Mthakwazi people who want Southwestern Zimbabwe to break away from the state and become independent, and above all, De Beers, which wants to appropriate 20% of the world’s known diamond reserves to themselves instead of the Zimbabwean people. This is why the MDC put in their manifesto that the diamond mines uniquely will be nationalized, while everything else gets privatized. This is to accommodate a national monopoly for De Beers, just like Debswana and Namdeb in Botswana and Namibia, respectively.

    • http://maravi.blogspot.com/ MrK

      ” Instead of reading the writing on the wall and steering the party back towards the centre, Zanu-PF went ahead with its unworkable timetable, including land seizures, which turned the bread basket of Africa into the begging-bowl state. ”

      I know the cliches, but just because you can repeat them, doesn’t make it true.

      And the racist presumptions underlying that statement need to be closely examined.

      The truth is that Zimbabwe is under economic sanctions. Until that fact is acknowledged, it makes no sense to even talk about ‘unworkable timetables, including land seizures’, or mismanagement by Mugabe, or anything else.

      ” As a result Zanu-PF is only able to retain power by immense brutality and vote-rigging as it stole the elections in 2002 and 2008. ”

      Again, untrue. If the ZANU-PF engaged in ‘immense brutality and vote-rigging’, why did Morgan Tsvangirai receive more votes? The fact that MT was unaware of the run-off clause in the Zimbabwe Electoral Act of 2004 (Article 110, subsection (3)), only goes to underscore how unprepared for government the MDC is. And how eager they are blame their setbacks and mistakes on ‘Mugabe’.

      You know, there is a pattern emerging. Everyone who has this strongly held views about ZANU-PF, has merely internalized the propaganda claims that are simply factually incorrect.

    • http://maravi.blogspot.com/ MrK

      (Continued…)

      Only able to maintain power through brutality and vote rigging? That implies that 1) the people of Zimbabwe were only pretending to want their land back and 2) that they don’t want to benefit from their own economy through indigenisation.

      Mbuya Nhanda was just pretending to rise up, and the people who joined the revolution after UDI was declared were only told to do so by ‘the Russians’.

      Got it.

    • Momma Cyndi

      Mugabe is not the problem. Mugabe hasn’t been in charge of Zim for well over a decade and a half. Those who really are in power can’t afford a change.

      This isn’t their first rigged election (the very first one was) and it won’t be their last

    • Baz

      @Momma Cyndi# Hear ! Hear ! Elections have always been rigged and Mugabe is part of the problem all along, he isn’t worried about how the rest of Zimbawians cope .
      Go up there and see for yourself. Conditions are appaling !

    • MarkD

      This has proved to be all wishful thinking. The only one who seems to have called the election accurately is Sanderson-Meyer:
      http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/williamsaundersonmeyer/2013/07/27/by-hook-or-by-crook-survivor-bob-will-carry-the-day/

    • bernpm

      “Democratic elections” for Africa and many other developing countries:

      “contradiction terminis”