Peak Oil Perspectives
Peak Oil Perspectives

A really short blog

By Roger Diamond


Let me explain. Peak oil theorists and activists have been warning of the possibility of imminent peak oil for many years now. And what we have been saying is coming true. Oil-price spikes, revelations regarding ACTUAL oil reserves and production, economic tantrums, social unrest, rising food prices and so on.

So listen closely.

The bad news is that peak oil is real and seems like it is here. The good news is that peak oil theorists are not only concerned with predicting catastrophe and misery, but also ways to avoid it. So if we’ve been correct so far about predicting the nasty things, maybe we are correct too in what we say regarding mitigation.

Further confirmation about what we say regarding mitigation is that many other thinkers come to similar conclusions, although they started in a different place, be it environmental destruction, resource conservation, climate change or social justice.

The mitigatory measures from most of these “movements”, for want of a better word, are not an identical set, but do have a lot of overlap.

Maybe then it is time to discover what you can do to help avert or mitigate the effects of peak oil in your life.

And maybe it is time to make your own chocolate eggs at home and wrap them in recycled off-cuts of present wrapping paper and hide them under the vegies in your backyard.

This will probably also be a whole lot more fun for your kids than sitting on a plane to have a week spent in shops and galleries in Paris!

  • david

    Strange article.
    Peak oil is already a reality, with scarcity driving prices upward, in a rather insane cycle. I have become interested in the Science fair where David Rockerfeller turned up and convinced everyone present that anything carbon was ipso facto remains of living plants and animals.
    Now it falls under “conspiracy” but the theory is that oil is a naturally occurring, commonly obtainable substance, and that scarcity is an artificially created profit driven lie.
    I won’t claim to know which is true, but i do think that peak oil equals the end of easy travel for most of us.

  • Judith

    Now if only Transnet would reopen the railway line from Joburg to East London, so that we would only have a short run to Coffee Bay next week. I would also be able to see my grandsons in Middelburg EC more often as there is a lonely station right there!

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  • MLH

    About those Easter eggs: I remember hiding Easter eggs in the garden for my toddler, mainly in the forks formed by rose-bush branches, about two feet off the ground. When we got back from the Easter service I sent him outside to find them, but he was very disilusioned; said the Easter bunny brought the dogs eggs but forgot him. The low-slung dachshunds had managed to get every one down and had scoffed them all! We had to pay an emergency visit to the bakery for more!

  • Balt Verhagen

    Another short sub-blog.

    *A large proportion of the so-called developed world has been living way beyond its sustainable levels of affluence for at least half a century. *It organised an international economic and financial system that can only sustain itself through “growth”
    *A futures market that can only sustain itself by ever increasing prices.
    *Ever fewer want to work hard and in service of the community.

    – The invoice for all this has been deposited in our letter boxes-

  • Nicholas

    Your point being?

  • nguni

    Its not a simple supply-demand equation. The unrest in the Middle East is whats driving up oil (and gold) at the moment.

  • Peter L

    Erm sorry, Roger, but no you didn’t.

    As Nguni indicated, there are many factors that influence commodity prices, including oil, and current supply and demand are but two of them.
    Geopolitical events for example influence the probability of potentially constrained future supply, which in turn influences futures values, which in turn influneces the spot price.

    The Peak oil theory is easily exposed when one considers that the oil reserves in the form of the tar sands in large areas of Canada and USA and shale oil in Colorado (and potentially our own Karoo!)are many times greater that current known and estimated liquid crude oil reserves.

    The difference is that extracting oil from coal, or tar sand, or shale rock is very expensive.
    The same applies to extracting oil from 2kms under the ocean or the ice sheet in Greenland or from the Kudu field off the coast of Angola (if Oil production really is declining, why has this massive natural gas resource not been harvested yet?)

    What IS in short and ever decreasing supply is the discovery of new , cheap to extract oil in abundance such as the Oil fields in the Middle East.

    If you change your theory to peak cheap oil, I might go along with it.

    If you really believe in your Peak Oil theory, why do you not buy long call options on oil and make yourself a multimillionaire when production drops, the price rises and your options move happily into the money?

  • Problem with Mitigation

    The problem I see with Mitigation is (by the way I would love to mitigate the problem so I am not personally against it) that we live in a system that relies on GROWTH to keep working and mitigation is basically against growth so they will continue to prop up business as usual just because they have to keep the growth cycle growing which could cause a rapid off the end of a cliff collapse instead of a gradual decline which would be preferred.